Myopia: (n) a lack of foresight or discernment: a narrow view of something
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Not really going out on a limb here, but I figured since I'm tired of finding errors on maps* I might as well put on the pundit hat and project the likely election results. Yes, it will be a baby seal hunt, no the GOP will not win everything. But it will win something very important which we'll discuss.
Senate Projection: GOP 48, Dems 52 (50 + 2 Independents). Sharon Angle will win in Nevada, Christine "I'm not a witch" O'Donnell will lose in Delaware. If not for O'Donnell's primary win, Angle would have lost and Castle won, so this is a net gain for the conservative wing of the GOP and an example of why the Karl Roves of the world should be ignored. It will be spun as a GOP loss, but they'll probably pick up 5 or 6 seats in 2012, so it's a solid step for them. Boxer wins in CA.
House: GOP 235, Dems 200. Hello, Speaker Boehner. Nancy, the back row is calling you. The GOP will sweep the Midwest and Kansas will be back to all GOP Congressmen after retiring Rep. Dennis Moore's wife loses in Johnson County.
Governorships: GOP 31, Dems 19 (GOP +7). Brown wins in CA**, Brownback wins in Kansas. GOP wins across the midwest. This is where the big gains will be held, because next year comes reapportionment based on the 2010 census, and the places where seats are being gained (west and south) will have GOP governors and many (for the first time) GOP-dominated legislatures They will gerrymander*** districts that will lock in a GOP advantage for 10 years, not only for Congress, but for state-level offices as well.
The big story is not that Dems aren't going to vote, but that when a Democrat doesn't vote, the Dems lose votes all down the ticket. It's not just that Kendrick Meeks loses; every office below the Senate also loses a Democrat vote. That down-ticket effect is going to be very marked this election.
There will be a Tea Party caucus in the Congress next year. My guess, however, is that it will outlive tea parties themselves. Which is not all that big a surprise when you think about it.
* which history project I mentioned before. The present map has Vermont and New Hampshire switched, Maryland is denoted as a free state, and Missouri is denoted as one whose slaves were freed by the Emancipation Proclamation.
** So CA will get what it deserves, budget-wise. It will be fun to watch.
*** or un-gerrymander, depending on your perspective.