Senate Projection: GOP 48, Dems 52 (50 + 2 Independents). Sharon Angle will win in Nevada, Christine "I'm not a witch" O'Donnell will lose in Delaware. If not for O'Donnell's primary win, Angle would have lost and Castle won, so this is a net gain for the conservative wing of the GOP and an example of why the Karl Roves of the world should be ignored. It will be spun as a GOP loss, but they'll probably pick up 5 or 6 seats in 2012, so it's a solid step for them. Boxer wins in CA.
House: GOP 235, Dems 200. Hello, Speaker Boehner. Nancy, the back row is calling you. The GOP will sweep the Midwest and Kansas will be back to all GOP Congressmen after retiring Rep. Dennis Moore's wife loses in Johnson County.
Governorships: GOP 31, Dems 19 (GOP +7). Brown wins in CA**, Brownback wins in Kansas. GOP wins across the midwest. This is where the big gains will be held, because next year comes reapportionment based on the 2010 census, and the places where seats are being gained (west and south) will have GOP governors and many (for the first time) GOP-dominated legislatures They will gerrymander*** districts that will lock in a GOP advantage for 10 years, not only for Congress, but for state-level offices as well.
The big story is not that Dems aren't going to vote, but that when a Democrat doesn't vote, the Dems lose votes all down the ticket. It's not just that Kendrick Meeks loses; every office below the Senate also loses a Democrat vote. That down-ticket effect is going to be very marked this election.
There will be a Tea Party caucus in the Congress next year. My guess, however, is that it will outlive tea parties themselves. Which is not all that big a surprise when you think about it.
* which history project I mentioned before. The present map has Vermont and New Hampshire switched, Maryland is denoted as a free state, and Missouri is denoted as one whose slaves were freed by the Emancipation Proclamation.
** So CA will get what it deserves, budget-wise. It will be fun to watch.
*** or un-gerrymander, depending on your perspective.
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Brown wins in CA**
I really don't think this is right for two reasons.
People still remember how thoroughly Brown campaigned against Prop 13, and that without Prop 13, the last decade would have seen property taxes skyrocket.
Brown was a laughing stock of a governor then, and there is virtually no support for him at all.
Of course, no one really likes Whitman either, so its another case of the state GOP finding and selecting the worst possible candidate to go against the D.
But, I would be really surprised if Whitman doesn't win in a squeaker. California is the weirdest, oddest place to try to project politics because there is really so many variables to account for. Yes, at first glance its heavy blue, but that's really only on account of LA, SF and Sacramento. The rest of the state -- counties and all -- is fairly red --> purple. This makes it nearly impossible to poll accurately because pollsters really have no idea how to weigh party affiliation.
In Davis' recall loss a decade or so ago, polls had him staying in power by 5 or 6 points. He ended up getting crushed because Dem turnout was grossly overestimated in the polls.
I think the same may be happening now as well.
In California, the saying goes that when Republicans are sick of their candidates in power, they tilt at windmills. When Dems are sick of their candidates in power (and make no mistake, the Governator is perceived as a Dem) they stay home and watch Fraiser reruns.
We'll see in a couple of weeks, but I would be surprised if Brown gets the nod again, as he's considered one of the worst governors that the state has ever had by both sides.
The fact that the race is as close as it is, though, tells you the state of play here I guess.
Boxer wins in CA
Now you're just depressing me.
Gerrymandering is a tool not to establish party hegemony, but to establish incumbent supremacy. But several times, people in "safe" districts, created just for them, have lost. THe real hold on gerrymandering is the courts. No matter how republicans redraw districts, liberal courts will throw out the new district lines because of racial dispirit impacts. This is the reason why race was on the census and citizenship was not. New boundaries will be drawn to place just enough blacks inside a boundary line to ensure a black (aka 85 IQ) representative gets elected.
Voting records only go down to teh precinct level, but Census data goes all the way to street address and skin color is the single most reliable indicator of Democratic party voters there is.
Any prediction on who the House minority leader will be? Will Nancy Pelosi seek the position, and if so, will she have the support to win it?
What about Steny Hoyer -- will he still be in office to campaign for it?
And boy I hope you're wrong about California. I'm watching the polls but don't claim any expertise, beyond the ability to flip a coin.
I do not believe Nancy will be it - the seppuku of the party leader is pretty much expected in cases like this. If Hoyer wins (and expect he will), he should be the minority leader - if you recall, his election as majority leader was considered a setback for Pelosi, thus I think he's protected a little bit. Whoever it is, I expect the downstream leadership to be even more liberal, since the Dems who remain will be from the most liberal districts.
Huck knows California better than I, so you would not likely go wrong following his gut feel on that one rather than mine.
Also, let me drop something that may seem impossible but is all too true.
In my lifetime, there have only been two (2) governors of California with a D for their party affiliation.
One of them was Gray Davis, who was embarrassingly recalled from office, and there was Brown's first bid as governor. The rest of my one-third century on this planet as seen this state's executive seat filled with an R.
To find another D one has to go back to 1967.
That is because the D's time in office is memorable. It takes a while for the memory of curruption and incompetence to fade and give hope, audacity and change another chance.
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