One secret for avoiding any kind of misdirection on the part of CNBC, the Fed, or their perpetual-optimist compatriots is to look at all their numbers not on a month-to-month basis, but on a year-over-year basis. It's easy to see "green shoots" following a particularly bad month, for as we see even in the case of the dollar, nothing ever goes straight down to zero*. There will always be bounces, even in housing starts. Old houses still wear out and people still need to live somewhere.

However, a 1 or 2% uptick is put in its proper perspective when it's ~30% below the year-ago number and ~80% below the same month five years prior. If the optimist wants to argue that such a massive fall is less important than the twitches of the quivering corpse upon landing, such a person truly cannot be helped.

Rather, figure out what stocks they are buying and sell them short.

(chart hat tip: Mish)

* Well, other than Lehman. And the Zimbabwe dollar. And GM. And Chrysler.