Friday, February 29, 2008

Just when you thought you knew cognitive dissonance

Along comes the Bush administration:
[Treasury Secretary] Paulson also touched on currency matters in response to questions from the audience at the Economic Club of Chicago. He said he believed a strong dollar was in the best interest of the United States...

The dollar hit a lifetime low against the euro and a basket of currencies on Thursday.
Dollar: 73.71 (record low)
Oil: $101 (record high)
Gold: $971 (record high)

I feel a little like I'm watching some Bizarro version of Independence Day*. In this one, El Presidente, Hammerin' Hank Paulson, and Helicopter Ben infiltrate their own mother ship, upload the virus, and shoot the nuke. Paulson wonders aloud, "Do you think they** have any idea what's about to happen?" Bernanke, still trying to get the chopper loose, answers, "No chance in hell."

Then Bush turns to them both and says, "Me, neither, but it sure was fun, huh?"

* All that is missing is that scene where all the Democrats gather at the top of the tower to welcome the aliens, holding signs and chanting. Oh, wait, here it is.

** "They" in this case being about 300 million Americans.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Real Genius Americans

Bloomberg says I was at best 2/3 correct:
Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The stimulus plan Congress approved this month may provide less of a jolt to the U.S. economy than intended, as most Americans plan to save rather than spend their tax rebates, a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey shows.

Only 18 percent of respondents said they will spend their rebate on purchases, while slightly more than three in 10 said they prefer to use the money to pay off debt, and a third said they'll pocket it.
I wrote a while back about the first delivery of helicopter money that "If [American families] save it, as I suspect they will do, all that has happened is that a negative $150 billion has moved from the balance sheet of the government from those of individuals. That's the best that can happen for individuals..."

And I certainly stand by that. Americans, as individuals or households, gain almost nothing by running out and spending the newfound bounty right off. Not only would it likely be spent on something that they don't need* and that would depreciate quickly anyway, but they are still on the hook because they'll pay taxes to Uncle Sam to pay the interest on that money in perpetuity**. Saving that money for the day a need comes up is the best solution, followed closely by paying off the residual debt for some of the Magic cards they have bought in the past. It looks like 2/3 or more of Americans are going to take that route.

Of course, Americans doing what is in their own interest will almost certainly frustrate the purposes of their government, which is to increase the magical GDP number, to keep Americans spending more than they earn in perpetuity***. But being smart in this case has two advantages: not only will they improve their own balance sheets immediately, either by increasing the assets column or decreasing the liabilities one, but they will almost guarantee that Congress will give them free money again.

When I was about 10 I wondered, if money is just printed up by the government, why they couldn't simply print up a million for each of us and then we could all be rich and not have to work. Since that day I have discovered the answer, but it has still evaded Congress, which will have to discover the answer for themselves. But it looks like, in the short term anyway, the majority of Americans are going to try to get out of the way of the inevitable results of that experiment. W00t! Good on 'em. There is still American genius after all, though when it arises, it tends to manifest itself in places other than the voting booth.

* How many Americans "need' as opposed to "want" something they don't have but which can be purchased for a few hundred bucks?

** If the dollar wasn't completely in the tank (and looking to get worse as I'll cover tomorrow) the best of the best solutions would be to buy Treasury debt with that money and collect their tax money back in interest, but with the dollar as it is, they might as well buy Magic(tm) cards. Those are more enjoyable in the short term and possibly more valuable in the long term than Treasury promises to print you up some green pieces of paper some time in the future.

*** which would be great if it were possible, though the fact that something is impossible has never kept Congress from spending gobs of other people's money to make it happen anyway.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Escaping the Island of Misfit Toys

Vince McMahon is a freak. Part evil genius, part mad scientist, possibly insane, probably chemically-enhanced. On top of that, he's the only CEO in the country who pays his employees six figures a year to hit him over the head with steel chairs.

But he's no dummy, and I was quite pleased to see him decline* an invitation to sit in a chair so members of our clown congress could wag fingers at him and preen for the TV cameras:
I am extremely and exceptionally disappointed with [McMahon's] decision not to appear at this hearing. ... While I recognize that professional wrestling is not a quote, sport, unquote, it still requires significant athletic talent and is widely watched by our young people. I want to to assure Mr. McMahon that we fully intend to address the issue of steroid use in professional wrestling.
Steroid use in wrestling is rampant**, without a doubt. So what? Somehow the fact that kids buy plastic wrestlers puts WWE under the authority of this Island of Misfit Toys? One can make the argument that because professional sports leagues receive a specific exclusion from anti-trust laws, therefore Congress has some overriding interest in making sure those companies' employees don't break drug laws that apply to everyone else, too***. But the WWE gets none of that. Congress is just as justified in calling in Barnum and Bailey to investigate whether the bearded lady is chemically enhancing her Old Dutch.

I'm glad to see that Vince has the grapefruits to tell Congress, in so many words, "Shut your mouth and know your role." It's just too bad it won't do any good.

* No, I didn't miss the word 'respectfully' there.

** As to the question of whether Vince uses steroids himself, I will only say that the guy in that picture is 60. As for the wrestlers, I've noticed that a lot of them have become significantly smaller since that little problem with Benoit.

*** Not a very good one, as drugs and anti-trust exemptions are about as related as fish and bicycles, but an argument nonetheless.

Death by rotten egg

The other brother (not PiffordT) sees dead people.

I'm thankful there are people like him to do that work. I'm also thankful I'm not one of them.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

The old imperialism is good enough

Hugo Chavez calls out the language police:
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - President Hugo Chavez's government is taking its battle against U.S. "imperialism" into Venezuelans' dictionaries, urging state phone company workers to avoid English-language business and tech terms.

Through a campaign launched Monday, newly nationalized CANTV hopes to wean employees and others from words like "staff" ("equipo" is preferred), "marketing" ("mercadeo") and "password" ("contrasena").

Stickers and banners printed up by the company exhort Venezuelans to "Say it in Spanish. Say it with pride."
Because we all know Spanish is native to South America.

Modern Spanish is rife with "anglicismos," English words taken directly into Spanish, like internet, click*, and even hot dog - though in the latter case many proud sudamericanos stick with the much more Spanish-sounding perritos calientes. Of course, Americans are quite familiar with tacos and salsa dancing, so fair is fair.

But it is more than a little amusing when tinhorn leftist dictators consider American 'imperialism' in language and technology worth fighting against by hearkening back to the language of those who forcibly enslaved the entire continent for three centuries in search of gold.

Imperialism just ain't what it used to be, I guess.

* pronounced "kleek," I kid you not.

Monday, February 25, 2008

On anarchists and the inherent loserdom thereof

Anarchists, for whatever reason, just love to issue cool-sounding communiques about everything, but one of the funniest things is a practice known as "squatting", where they basically take over an abandoned building, an open field, or a park in downtown Lawrence and do, well, nothing really, except issue more communiques about how they are changing the world. One recent anarchist tract described 'zero work tactics' thus:
After working less for a while, you will start to really enjoy the extra free time. You may find yourself not wanting to work at all. (Who could blame you?) If this is the case, you can go all the way and simply stop working. There isn't enough space here to discuss zero-work tactics other than to say it can be done. Zero-work tribes combine most of the living-cheap tactics and tips with squatting (living for free in abandoned buildings), shoplifting food, foraging for food, and using advanced dumpster diving techniques to live on practically no money at all. As you get more into the low-work scene in your town, you will probably meet some zero-work experts who can show you the tricks. Working less is great but working not at all is a blast.
So other than nothing, what does squatting really accomplish? I ran across a 'report' today* from one Lawrence squatter who got arrested in Iowa over the weekend and who gave us a firsthand account of the glorious liberation of 400 square feet of corn field. It's almost too funny to even comment on, but I can't let that stop me. Be warned, however: apparently capital letters are too close to capitalism for squatters' tastes, so it might be a bit hard to read:
dearest comrades,

i have tons of news to share with you. first the squat was liberated and living and repairing and defending commenced. the four of us spent the first night there and felt truly free. the next morning we awoke and jojo asked "what do you want to do today?" we all laughed because we knew that we could truly do ANYthing we wanted! things however took a sudden turn for the worse. after members began to plant the garden our ride left and three remained.
Well, at least they attempted to do something useful, although one wonders how much food they were expecting to have to steal while waiting for the crops to grow. I guess the fourth person realized they weren't going to be able to grow gas money...
we decided to start the walk into town
Probably to steal something from a person who worked for a living
when we ran into friendly waverly police officers. through a string of bad coincidences the three of us were arrested and charged with 3rd degree Burglary a felony with a maximum of 5 years in prison and $5,000 bond for living at the squat.
"A string of bad coincidences," probably including the liberation of a package of Twinkies and a bottle of rum to help out with the revolution, and the capitalist overlords of said food products were displeased.
they suspected we were terrorists
I wonder where they got that idea?
and treated us thusly. we spent the night in jail and contemplated spending the next chunk of our lives behind bars. as they dug through our terrorist propaganda
I suspect that was a bit of anarchist sarcasm, but one can never be too sure. Maybe it was just another "bad coincidence."
the stress was enormous.
Can you hear my bucket drum, comrade?
in the morning we were araigned and only after a long discussion with the investigator, the sentence was lowered to criminal tresspassing and criminal mischief, both misdemeanors. we all plead guilty on both accounts and were each given fines of $430. we paid what we could out of pocket as it stands the total we owe the county of bremer, iowa is $1,160 for the three of us.
They probably realized that if you were just looking for a place to live for free, they didn't care to provide your lodging for the next 5 years. It would cost considerably more than your whole $130 just for cable TV alone.
both lawrence and kirksville have jail solidarity funds that they are willing to help with. im not sure where we stand other than that, we're just glad to be out of jail.
So we're looking for someone else to bail our butts out of this mess.
the squat however is for the time unliveable since we assume its under heavy surveilance.
The cows are always watching. It looks like they're just eating, but they are actually the eyes of the entire capitalist system. Now you know the secret.
sorry if you were planning on coming. it was beautiful for the two days it lasted, i've never felt so free in all my life!
Except that that jail part, I suspect.
we wont talk about how we felt in jail to save this email some uneeded negativity. anyway thank you all for your help and support.

yours for the rent free revolution,
jake
jojo &
chris
I'm betting that the idea sounded pretty cool, but they got bored after an hour of gardening when they realized that they didn't have any seeds (other than marijuana), and they didn't know how to farm. Then the 'burden of freedom***' set in, so they wandered into town and the local cops washed their smelly carcases down, Rambo-style. It appears now that they have returned to wherever "home" is to the wannabe homeless, locked and loaded to squat again.

Just make sure the solidarity fund has the bail money ready next time, ok?

* This was actually written in 2003, but Huck's mention of "anarchist kids**" made me think it worth re-posting.

** Look! Scare marks! But they're not very scary, I'll admit. Clowns, however, clowns are scary. Right, Rebel Nun?

*** also known as 'boredom.'

Sunday, February 24, 2008

All weekends should be like that

You'll be relieved to learn that Heurodis is dead and the ancient city of Undrentide will not be flying again any time soon.

I swear, rogues are the most under-appreciated class out there...

Friday, February 22, 2008

Something Christians and Atheists agree on

One of the funnier things one comes across when reading atheist* literature is the almost hyper-puritanical approach they often take to the Bible. Skeptic's Annotated Bible sums it up quite succinctly with a clever little page that asks, "Is every word of God pure?" featuring a left-hand column with those familiar verses that assert the positive and a right-hand column that reveals a number of verses that Sunday Schoolboys have passed notes about for generations. SAB even helpfully marks all questionable verses with a little yellow exclamation point.

Positive Atheism has a "Big Scary List" of such quotations, while Edgar Pearlstein has published a well-known (or at least much-copied) study of "Sex and Scatology in the Bible."

But setting aside the unrelated question of whether every Word of God is "pure"**, one cannot help but come to the conclusion that atheists and Christians have something of an agreement here. The atheists say, "If God was good, he'd never say 'piss.'" The Christians just ignore those parts of the Bible, because they agree in a cognitive-dissonance sort of way. If it makes the Sunday Schoolboys twitter, you can bet it never gets mentioned from the pulpit. God may say 'piss,' but a good Christian never does.

Jeff Wofford has found another such word in Philipians 3:8:
The word you want to keep your eye on is "σκύβαλα"--pronounced "skubala." Here's a literal translation of the verse:

But indeed I also consider everything to be loss on account of the surpassing knowledge of Christ Jesus my Lord, on account of whom I forfeited all things; and I consider them shit so that I may gain Christ...

Yes, you heard me right. Skubala means shit. Not only does it literally mean shit--i.e., human excrement--but it also has the same connotation. It is a vulgar word. Paul would not have said it in mixed company unless he expected a reaction.

It's difficult to find Christian sources that discuss skubala, but its use in ancient writings outside of the Bible makes clear that it was considered very impolite. The leading modern Greek lexicon--BDAG, it's called--glosses skubala as "refuse," "garbage," "human excrement," "crud," and "crap"--very strong words for this Christian scholarly book.

So the original text of the sacred Scripture contains a dirty word. I don't know about you, but I felt a profound sense of relief when I discovered this.

English translations don't like this word. They take the edge off it.
He answers the question as to why they take the edge off of it, and it's worth a read.

My sense of relief is the same, simply because I've never been one who considered our modern sense of verbal propriety as helpful as God's blunt descriptions of the human condition and our history. I mean, if God created us, he created us to take a dump as much as he created us to eat, to screw as much as to pick flowers. Why should we expect that he would never mention those facts or their significant, real-world results? If the Bible fails to live up to our modern sense of propriety, that's only because it approaches man as he is, not as our modern, sanctified, whitewashed ideology expects him to be, whether we be Christian or atheist.

That said, I'd be lying if I said that I don't conform in many ways to what that ideology expects of me individually. I don't swear much. In fact, I'd bet that even those in whose homes I have spent quite a bit of time will be hard-pressed to recall an occasion on which I've done so. That I don't swear much myself is not because I'm opposed to it, but because I tend to save mine for special occasions***. Swearing, like threatening, is a verbal tool anyone can wield, but overused, like the mom who is constantly "counting" at her kids, it loses its effectiveness.

I really don't care if others swear a blue streak, nor am I so tender-of-heart that a really creative stream of invective is going to melt me like some Wizard of Oz witch. I'm more liable to laugh out loud and memorize it in case a perfect occasion for recycling presents itself. And Dogma remains among my favorite films.

Oh, I understand that some are put off by such words. That's why I try to post language warnings where appropriate. That "R" rating is at the top of this page because while I reserve the right to use such language, it's only fair that I warn people ahead of time that their virgin eyes may be in danger here.

But I do find it extremely funny when some Christian drops a really nasty word or reference, and both the Christians and the atheists nod to each other in unison. "See? I knew he wasn't really a Christian." Not only does the swearer have Paul (and God) on his side, but that determination is neither the Christians' nor the atheists' to make. Just one more thing they have in common, I guess.

* Not agnostic, "I really don't know of or about anyone named 'God,'" but "There is no God and you're stupid for thinking there is" literature.

** which word does not now nor ever did mean, 'in accordance with a 21st century American opinion of social propriety."

*** I'd be willing to bet that Rebel Nun remembers the first time I dropped the F-bomb in her presence. I was on my way to a gold show in Chicago, working the booth for a company, when the President, who'd had my presentation for review for more than a week, called me five minutes before I had to leave to catch my flight and informed me of a half-dozen things that might have been important to include. That was a special occasion.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

The subprime primer

It's all in one place and done so well I'll never have to explain anything again.

(language warning)

Y'all'll* certainly notice something that came up over at Huck's...

OK, obviously what we have here is a parade of upper middle class white zombies, probably all still in school, probably most living off Daddy's money. That's fine, change the world and all that. The zombie chick in red on the right speaks for all of them when she says, "change... change... change..."

But look at the black guy on the left, the only person in the picture who is looking at the camera and the only one not drooling all over his own chin.

How would you describe his expression? I look at him and I'm like, 'This guy knows something, and he knows that I know he knows it. He walks among the zombies without fear, for they have no power over him. He does not participate; he merely watches, studying this environment with a cold, intellectual detachment. He knows what it portends, but he is not saying anything.'

Either that or he's been photoshopped in to provide some color to what is otherwise a vanilla parade of upper middle class white zombie college kids.

* I don't know that I've ever had contractions so close before. Maybe it's time to head for the hospital.

(a lifetime supply of beaver pelt hats: Huck)

Seriously, dude, what did you expect?

The sacrificial lamb baaaas for his reputation:

John McCain denied a romantic relationship with a female telecommunications lobbyist on Thursday and said a report by The New York Times suggesting favoritism for her clients is "not true."

"I'm very disappointed in the article. It's not true," the likely Republican presidential nominee said as his wife, Cindy, stood alongside him during a news conference called to address the matter.
I really hope the gentleman from the Canal Zone is not surprised that, now that he is the presumptive Republican nominee, the Times has started to treat him like any other Republican nominee.

The thing* I've always hated about McCain has been the fact that he has made his career of playing to his press peanut gallery. And the reason he has been able to do so has been that he has always been willing to go against the current trend of the GOP in the most public fashion possible. There seems to be nothing the press likes better than an anti-Republican Republican with a big mouth, or what they call a "maverick**".

But it's going to fun*** to watch McCain as all the perquisites he has come to count on from the press are withdrawn en todo as soon as he becomes the Republican nominee. He is no longer the maverick Republican who is willing to work with Russ Feingold or Ted Kennedy****. He is no longer the principled statesman who is willing to stand up for the public good against those evil Republicans.

He is now The Republican. Capital "The." Capital "Republican." It's his party now, so he's going to get the same press Reagan and Nixon and Bush(s) got, and for the same reason. Come to think of it, I'm pretty sure he will be surprised by that.

* OK, the thing I want to talk about in this post. We'll save The Keating Five and McCain-Feingold for another day.

** Ron Paul is a real maverick, a lone dissenter, yet a Google search for "Ron Paul maverick" gives fewer than 100 returns. "John McCain maverick" returns more than a quarter million.


*** My stomach already hurts from laughing so hard. How am I going to survive until November?

**** To give them exactly what they want.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Feminism becomes a parody of itself

in the person of Senator von Munchausen:

WASHINGTON - As Hillary Clinton struggles to regain her momentum in the presidential race, frustrated feminists are looking at what they see as the ultimate glass ceiling: A female candidate with a hyper-substantive career is now threatened with losing the nomination to a man whose charismatic style and powerful rhetoric are trumping her decades of experience.
Quick, by yourself or with a friend, count up the actual accomplishments that make up Hillary's "decades of experience" and "hyper-substantive career." Then from that number*, subtract those that are directly a result of the fact that she was married to an elected official.

It is strange to hear feminists complain it's somehow sexist that this wife may not be inheriting** her husband's old job after all. I thought that was the kind of carpetbagging woman they despised in the first place.

* which I believe is pretty close to zero, so it shouldn't take long.

** In fact, she's losing because black voters have somehow confused her with Richard Nixon. And in the Dem primaries, that matters.

Give trade a chance

I mean, the other thing hasn't worked for half a century:
WASHINGTON - Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte says the United States will not soon lift its embargo on Cuba* despite Fidel Castro's resignation.

Asked by reporters at the State Department if Washington planned to change its Cuba policy now that Castro has stepped down, Negroponte replied: "I can't imagine that happening anytime soon." He declined further comment.
I can't imagine it happening anytime soon, either. I mean, why should a policy that hasn't accomplished anything worthwhile in the 5 decades of its existence be abandoned simply because the reason it was originally implemented no longer exists?

Obviously the 'not trading' with Cuba hasn't given us what we wanted there**. Perhaps we might just try trading with them and see where that gets us?

* But I would be willing to lift the pictured Cuba Libre. Note the lime, Misty.

** Assuming that what we wanted there was actually the same as what we said we wanted there. A bad assumption on my part, perhaps?

Monday, February 18, 2008

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Count every vote

At least that's the Clinton campaign's current line:
WASHINGTON (AP) - Harold Ickes, a top adviser to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign who voted for Democratic Party rules that stripped Michigan and Florida of their delegates, now is arguing against the very penalty he helped pass.

In a conference call Saturday, the longtime Democratic Party member contended the DNC should reconsider its tough sanctions on the two states, which held early contests in violation of party rules. He said millions of voters in Michigan and Florida would be otherwise disenfranchised - before acknowledging moments later that he had favored the sanctions...
Ickes is not being inconsistent here, it's just that when he voted for the rules changes, he didn't expect Hillary would need those delegates.

The backstory here is pretty simple. Starting after the McGovern electoral disaster and reaching completion in 1984, the Democrats significantly restructured their primary process, frontloading a lot of mostly southern states into what became "Super Tuesday" as the first major test after Iowa and New Hampshire, and creating Superdelegates who held a quarter or more of the voting power at the convention. This, it was hoped, would avoid the nomination of another McGovern*, a relatively unknown liberal wildly popular with the northeastern union/leftist grassroots but less so with the average voter. The result was (with a few notable exceptions) as good as could be expected: a pair of southern governors who both won the Presidency. It worked for them because the Dems have not won the presidency without a southern governor since Kennedy and they have not lost with one (except Carter's re-election) in the modern era.

So when the Democrats "disallowed' the delegates of any state that jumped ahead of the preferred order, they did so to maintain that structure. Hillary's commanding national lead in the polls should have allowed her to sail through that process and thus her supporters worked to maintain that status quo. But Michigan and Florida** jumped ahead anyway, and the DNC said that was fine, the delegates you elect just won't count. Rules are rules, and both states understood that ahead of time.

But now Hillary needs the delegates, and a move is beginning that seeks to undo the DNC's hard line. It is exactly the type of blatant power play Hillary watchers have been expecting since the get-go. It will certainly not be the last such.

I don't know that it will matter all that much at this point. If the Messiah Express rolls through Texas and Ohio with big wins, this thing is over. Those black superdelegates like John Lewis, who in expectation of her victory jumped early on the Hillary bandwagon, are starting to publicly back Obama. Should Obama enter the convention with more delegates than Hillary, even if it's not enough to win outright, I fully expect they will not stand by and let the Clinton Machine set aside a popular black candidate. The anti-war liberals are certainly not going to side with Hillary. While it will be a test of how much Clinton clout remains, I'm starting to think there is less there than I previously believed.

But there is significant clout there, and rules can be bent and shaped to help or hinder any candidate. The big question, in the end, will be whether the Democrat party structure believes that Obama can beat McCain. If they do***, then those 'disenfranchised' voters of Michigan and Florida are going to be out of luck****.

* this one named "Obama."

** The former with only Hillary on the ballot (all the campaigns but hers held to the DNC line and didn't get on the ballot) and the latter where only she campaigned (all the campaigns but hers held to the DNC line and didn't go there), were both won by her. Gentleman's agreements are not exactly her forte.

*** and they should: he will, like a hippie's drum.

**** And it will be interesting to watch the party that has screamed for 8 years that every vote should count ignore precisely that argument from the Clinton people. I'm not saying I agree with Clinton (I could not care less how the Democrats choose a candidate I have no intention of voting for). But it does go to show the flexibility of principle in the face of power politics.

Saturday, February 16, 2008

Of course they're not the problem, they're voters

The coiner of 'creationalism' worries that the rest of the nation is starting to resemble his own city, at least financially:
NEW YORK (CBS/AP) ― Mayor Michael Bloomberg ... said the nation "has a balance sheet that's starting to look more and more like a third-world country." ...

"Nobody wants to sit there and say, 'Well there's no easy solution,"' Bloomberg said. "They want to send out a check to everybody to stimulate the economy. I suppose it won't hurt the economy but it's in many senses like giving a drink to an alcoholic."

A spokesman for the mayor said later that Bloomberg was trying to say Washington can't stop itself from spending, and was not insinuating that Americans who receive checks are part of the problem.
Bloomberg himself 'fesses up to being a first-class enabler as well, as the article later outlines his own plans for more spending, including having you take over part of the mortgage payments for your neighbors who bought more house than they could afford*. But the beauty of his statement is not simply that it's only partly true, it's that the part that's false ensures that the problem he correctly identifies will never get fixed.

Of course people who receive money** are part of the problem. By continuously selling their votes to politicians in exchange for their own money and money created from nothing, they enable the politicians to continue their drunken spending binge. It is not, in the final say, the politicians who are giving drinks to alcoholics, but the voters.

The problem is quite simple to understand: there is simply no excuse for the government to spend, over the long term, more money than it takes in - a debt of a quarter-million dollars for every working family is obscene***. The voters can't run their own lives that way; trying to do so means they eventually lose their houses and cars and all the fine things they buy with others' money. But those same voters have believed the promises of politicians that somehow the mathematical laws of finance, and even of common sense, don't apply to us in the collective. We are the gullible, working wife who believes that our sod of a husband really can provide for the family by spending our paychecks at the corner bar, and are satisfied when he smuggles home pockets full of beer nuts for our dinner. We are the enablers.

In the past few months, we have seen the implosion of the credit markets not only in subprime, but in Alt-A mortgages, auction-rate (municipal) securities, asset-backed commercial paper, LBOs, MBSs, student loans, Monolines and a few others, each of them resulting in billions of dollars in losses or the inability of such markets to continue at all. All the money the government created for its own benefit (while calling it our benefit) is now disappearing into a black hole of default. All the jobs created to move that money from one place to another, to slice it up and package it up and ship it off, are going to disappear as well. When the first quarter ends and big banks are forced to re-value all the worthless junk they hold, the financial world at large - not to mention millions of hard-working but nothing-producing clerks and managers who are about to join the real estate agents in the unemployment line - is in for a big surprise.

Unless, of course, the government just prints up enough money to buy everything.

* Unfortunately, that does not give you the right to play in their yard or store stuff in their garage. There is such a thing as property rights in this country, you know.

** Also known as "voters."

*** to manage that debt the government by necessity must create a finance wing (the Federal Reserve and its captive banks) to ship that debt off to others, and that debt, now in the form of money, must slosh around until it disappears either through inflation or default. It is not that there is, as Bloomberg notes, "no easy solution." Other than balancing the budget, there is simply no solution at all.

Friday, February 15, 2008

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

South Park imitates life

I don't know if any of you caught South Park tonight, but the episode was a rerun of "Night of the Living Homeless."

In it the town is overrun by smelly zombies who wander aimlessly, with their hands out, mumbling "change... change... change."

For some reason I was reminded of an Obama campaign rally, but I just can't figure out why...

The great white hopeless

James Carville said this weekend about Hillary, "She's behind. Make no mistake. If she lose[s] either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done."

I don't see at this point how she wins both. I really question whether she wins either. Superdelegates can't save Hillary if Obama looks like a lock, because grass-roots blacks will rip the party in half if he's denied the nomination in such a blatant power play. So it's starting to look like it's quite possible that maybe I was not exactly correct about Hillary winning the nomination. We should know in a couple weeks.

Either way, I'm still certain that whomever faces Commander McCain will win 40 states.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Ye can discern the face of the sky

but can ye not discern the signs of the times?
NEW YORK (Reuters) - More than 30 percent of U.S. homeowners who bought in the last two years owe more on their mortgage than their house is currently worth, a housing market research company said on Tuesday.

The housing market peaked in most U.S. markets in the last two years. Of home buyers in 2006, 39 percent of those with a median 10 percent down payment now have negative home equity similar to 30 percent of those who purchased in 2007, said online company Zillow in its quarterly home value report.
Of those people who bought their houses in the past 2 years, putting down $20k in hard cash for a $200k home, nearly half own a home worth less than their outstanding balance. I'm going to go out on a limb and bet that pretty close to 100% of those people who got a no-money-down, subprime, NINJA*, liar's ARM loan are today sitting in a house worth significantly less than the "principal" line of their monthly mortgage. That's in addition to the 6% or so haircut they would take if they actually managed to sell it. Those folks are financially hosed. El Presidente's latest magical plan to keep them in their underwater houses for an extra 30 days does nothing but prolong the agony.

Now, it's unfortunate that people find themselves in that situation. One can lay blame all over**, but I really do feel bad for people who bought homes stupidly. Yes it's their fault. Yes they deserve to get hosed, especially if they just intended to flip it to a greater fool. But I don't trip the blind or mock the retarded, either. That said, me feeling bad doesn't change the fact that they are about to learn a lesson. In fact, we all are, because these things have consequences.

A number of states - California being the first one, though Florida, Arizona, and the rest may not be far behind - have a real problem. You see, their main source of income is property taxes, which are proportional to property values. So long as values were going up by double digits every year, all kinds of free money came in, like magic, and state governments were more than happy to let the good times roll. No more, because while the trend has reversed, we are not anywhere near the bottom. It does not get better for them from here. It gets much worse.

The fact that 30% of people who bought houses in the past 2 years owe more than the house is worth means that some proportion of them will walk away; they will turn the house back to a bank that will have no choice but to sell it, driving prices down. Driving prices down puts more people underwater, which means more walking away, which means more fire sales, which means lower property values. Even if it's a small proportion, it's a significant issue because it feeds on itself.

Falling values means lower property tax revenues for governments. It is followed by lower employment in the construction and finance sectors, which means even lower income tax revenues for governments. And that means deficits out the wazoo and budget cuts - think "lower employment in the government sector, too" - at the very time governments want to step in and 'do something.'

With the exception of Uncle Sam***, governments can't spend money they don't have. Nor can they borrow that money at reasonable rates, given that the monoline insurers that used to guarantee their AAA ratings are on the ropes. They have no choice but to pull in their horns and ride the storm out, just like the walker-away from an underwater home. The screams will be heard to high heaven, and tales of woe will be nightly fare on the network news.

There is good news in all this, however****. Consumers are pulling in their horns. They are paying down their debts. As Mish noted a couple of weeks ago, there is a new attitude among consumers that maybe, just maybe, living within our collective means is a good idea after all.

Of course, that attitude itself has economic consequences. Recession, depression, default, deflation - all manner of bad things are going to happen because consumers are starting to take responsibility for their own financial futures. The politicians are going to fight it with every trick in the book, but that won't matter.

The recession, the end of the bubble, the limits to debt were inevitable anyway. But the change in attitude is what will be necessary for us to survive it with the least trouble possible. There still may be a lot of trouble. But if Americans did not occasionally show a propensity to learn faster than the people they elect to 'run' the country*****, it would be a lot worse.

* No Income, No Job or Assets. Honest to God, that's a real acronym.

** It's thicker than manure on an organic farm.

*** Uncle Sam, of course, can borrow and print, and he will, with helicopter drops of money, tax rebates, loan guarantees, bond issues, tax cuts, unemployment insurance. None of it will matter all that much. The signs of the times say that leverage is working backward, the debts are being reneged on. TANSTAAFL.

**** There is always good news if one looks for it, and it usually involves people dicovering that fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life.

***** Yes, I realize that is not logically tenable, but people are not all that logical anyway.

Google is faster than Limewire

Monday, February 11, 2008

Crying Uncle

Forbes magazine says, "Enough is enough:"
Stop dawdling around. We need a Chrysler-scale bailout of the monoline insurers, which are a crucial linchpin of our financial system.

These insurers--which deal in a single insurance product, usually those that guarantee bonds, complex derivatives and other mortgage-type securities issued by banks--are now becoming a wall of worry stretching from Wall Street to Washington.

Many of our most profound problems in the credit markets that are now whacking the stock market and the economy at large began when these insurers, in the interest of greater profits, started deviating from their initial purpose--to guarantee municipal bonds.
There are few things more pathetic than the captains of industry and the patriots of the new American financial revolution crying to Uncle Sam as soon as their greedy schemes turn to feces.

The monoline insurers chose to leave the (relative) safety of insuring government bonds in search of higher profits. Fair enough, I have no problem with people accepting risk in search of reward. But they put their seal of approval on all manner of subprime toxic waste that was sold all over the world to unsuspecting investors who paid top dollar for bonds "guaranteed" by these insurers. Those investors won't get their money back because the insurers can't stand behind their guarantee*, yet the insurers want to be bailed out with the tax money of the same people they just screwed by selling them subprime debt?

Wow, is that chutzpah.

Everyone loves capitalism** until their schemes to weave gold from straw come up empty; then it's time to cry out for some else to take the loss, someone else to take the blame. I have a daughter who cries when her hair is brushed. She has a higher pain tolerance than Wall Street financiers.

* And there was no way they ever could. But they accepted the fees just the same.

** The press calls it capitalism and even the capitalists call it capitalism. However, there is a word for an economic system under which all the risks of productions are socialized under a government which creates economic plans for them all. And it ain't capitalism.

Don't stand so close to me

Saturday, February 09, 2008

Oooooh, scary


John Kerry* 'splains whence tornadoes come:
“[I] don’t want to sort of leap into the larger meaning of, you know, inappropriately, but on the other hand, the weather service has told us we are going to have more and more intense storms,” Kerry said. “And insurance companies are beginning to look at this issue and understand this is related to the intensity of storms that is related to the warming of the earth. And so it goes to global warming and larger issues that we’re not paying attention to."
When I was a kid, SCTV** used to have an occasional segment called "Monster Chiller Horror Theatre." The host, a vampire named Count Floyd, promoted a new horror movie each week by showing a preview and then acting all scared. My favorite was always "Dr. Tongue’s 3-D House of Pancakes," during which John Candy, playing the mad scientist known as Dr. Tongue, would repeatedly offer a heaping plate to the camera while Psycho-esque violins screeched in the background. If you just looked at the stage makeup and listened to the music, it could be pretty scary***. But if you looked closely at what was on the plate, it was just regular old pancakes.

Thus it is with the above chart, which seems to be appearing in lots of places and represents the latest offering from the emerging field of ASASDBGW**** science.

If you look closely, all it is is pancakes.

First of all, NOAA's own site, in reference to this chart, says "Tornado numbers for 2008 are likely to be overestimated due to duplicate reports for the same tornado." So the first clue that we're not dealing with a new, angrier Gaia is that NOAA here is simply counting reports of tornadoes, not actual tornadoes. If you and your neighbor report the same tornado, it's two tornadoes. That duplication eventually gets washed out when actual tornadoes are counted.

But that's not the important number. The important number is one that I have not seen a single ASASDBGW scientist (or politician) address, that black line representing the 10-year average. Look where it ends the year. Now look where, in relation to the 10-year average, every year in the past 3 has ended. The past three years have all been lower than the average, with the past 2 years each being lower than the one that preceded it.

That means if there is a causal link between global warming and the number of tornadoes, global warming is going down.

Hey, that's as good as John Kerry's science at least...

* He was Barack Obama when Barack Obama wasn't cool

** It was a Toronto-based equivalent of SNL, which also introduced Bob and Doug MacKenzie to the world.

*** Well, actually, there was no way it could be scary - it didn't even scare Count Floyd no matter how scared he tried to look - but work with me here, ok?

**** As Soon As Something's Different, Blame Global Warming.

Friday, February 08, 2008

I ain't never met nobody like Sheriff Barack

This just in, courtesy of the university broadcast email system:
I am a 42 year old* undergraduate here at XXXXX State University. I have seen many candidates in my time, but none like Barack Obama. I would like for you, my younger peers, to experience a man of character and vision, a man who represents change for all Americans.

Please go to Eventful.com if you would like Senator Barack Obama to come and speak here at XXXXX State University.
I'm just glad there's not a tornado or something...

* That's just a nasty coincidence, I swear.

Hopefully it's good for partial credit

Problema Cinco: Two men meet at a business function. Construct a hypothetical conversation that concludes 'egualmente*.'

Sr. Gomez: Como se llama ella y que hace?
Sr. Sanchez: Ella caliente? Se llama Nana y es mujer de la noche.
Sr. Gomez: De verdad? Quiere mucho dinero?
Sr. Sanchez: No, es de Joplin.
Sr. Gomez: Ah, disculpe.
Sr. Sanchez: Equalmente.

I hope he thinks it's funny, even though he's from Joplin.

UPDATE: ok, a couple people have asked for a translation. Here's what I *tried* to say:

Sr. Gomez: What is the name of that girl and what does she do?**
Sr. Sanchez: That hot girl? Her name is Nana and she's a "lady of the evening."
Sr. Gomez: Really? Is she expensive? ***
Sr. Sanchez: No, she's from Joplin.
Sr. Gomez: Oh, I'm sorry.
Sr. Sanchez: Me, too.

* El B note: It basically means "Me, too" and can be used response to someone saying "nice to meet you," which introductions are what I think the professor's looking for.

** These were two of the three questions we were expected to be able to answer. The third has to do with where a person is from.

*** literally "does she want much money?"

Thursday, February 07, 2008

Baby Seal Redux

Mitt is gone, Huck is broke, Paul is a 5% candidate. Unless something unforeseeable happens between now and the GOP convention, John McCain is slated to play GOP baby seal. The GOP is going to run a candidate who has spent the last 20 years running against them*.

As I wrote before the last great Democrat baby seal hunt, "To be successful, the GOP need[s] to be a responsible alternative to the infantile Democrats." Now they are running a man whose name was seriously whispered as the Democrats' vice-presidential candidate** and whose name headlines the legislative abomination known as McCain-Feingold. They have shown that they have no desire to be a serious alternative to the Dems. This Republican party is the GOP of the 1960s and 1970s and is about to be cemented into minority status for 2 decades just like they were.

I'm trying, really trying to care. But I can't.

* It is arguably worse that when Bush betrayed Republican principles he got the party to go along. But it is not even arguable that it is more stupid for the GOP to nominate a man who consistently betrays them in exchange for press adulation.

** It doesn't matter if he was actually asked, or if Kerry even thought about asking. What matters is that John McCain has been so unrepublican for so long that political insiders thought, Hmmm, I could see that. No one would make such a mistake with Pat Roberts or Kit Bond.

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Separated at birth?


Just for bw.

Random thoughts

The thing I'm missing is an evil plan to rule the world. No one can possibly rule the world without a plan, and I don't have one.

My wife called me today and told me that one of the chicks in her unit was just sure that Hawaii was on Mountain Time because it was so close to Arizona. When I finally figured out why she thought that*, I shot DMD out my nose.

Becoming an ex-something does not make you smarter. If you were an idiot Christian, then you're not a genius now; you're just an idiot ex-Christian.

One of the football coaches decided to spend the lunch hour today chewing me out about something that I neither caused nor could fix. I actually felt sorry for the guy, because he's under far more job pressure than I due to a recent death in his department. But I was a little sore from all the situps I felt like I should have been doing.

I listened in on a political argument between two of the gals in my office today, and I realized perhaps for the first time how little I care who wins the presidential race this fall. I felt like a Jew in Baghdad listening to an argument over whether the Shiites or the Sunnis should rule Iraq.

Republicans are terrible negotiators. El Presidente's helicopter money deal weighed in at about double what Senator von Munchausen's did. Now the Senate Dems want to up it by 30% and the GOP is suddenly concerned that it's too expensive.

People are walking away from their houses. Not being kicked out, but purposely deciding to give the property back to the bank. The act even has a new name, Jingle Mail, based on the jingling of keys as they arrive in an envelope. What's to stop them? They have no money in the deal. It's not that I blame them, but I do wonder: how could the banks have expected that this fiasco would ever end any other way?

People are incredibly stupid. I'm just glad I'm not one.

* a fact Rogue purposely did not share, because it's so much more satisfying for her when she can torture me with the obvious.

He was correct in 1994

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Whom to believe?

A former GOP sacrificial lamb defends the next one:
Bob Dole, the former Senate Republican leader, wrote an insistent letter to Rush Limbaugh on Monday and suggested that for the good of the party, the conservative talk-show host should stop his strafing of Sen. John McCain...

In a letter released Monday evening by McCain's campaign, Dole strongly defended the senator’s conservative credentials, noting that his voting record is ... supportive of gun-owner rights.
I wondered about this when I saw it, because I had previously seen this:
Gun Owners of America Ratings For John McCain:
2000: C
2002: C
2004: F
2006: F
Admittedly the GOA tends to be rather absolutist* on the 2nd Amendment, so I figured I'd better check in on the NRA rating, because they are both bigger and more 'moderate' than GOA.

I couldn't find one. Instead I found a whole lot of people who claimed that McCain got a 'C' or 'C+' while Romney got a 'B,' or that the NRA won't endorse until Huck is out of the race, or that Ron Paul is 'top tier' while McCain is second tier, none of which claims contained a link to the NRA site or any NRA source. I also found nothing on the NRA site. Basically, I got a whole lotta nothing from the NRA wherever I looked.

And one should never draw a conclusion based on nothing, right?

Except in this case. If McCain was supportive of gun owners' rights, he would not get an 'F' from GOA. If McCain was supportive of gun owners' rights, we would not get stony silence from the NRA. But Bob Dole says McCain supports gun owners' rights**.

So who are you going to believe? Bob Dole or your own lying eyes?

* Meaning they are my kind of guys.

** And Bob Dole is an honorable man.

Monday, February 04, 2008

A jumping-off point for MikeT

MikeT is going to attempt to formulate a case for Christian libertarianism, and since that's a noble endeavor, I figured I'd throw in my 2c:

One major point of Christian libertarianism lies in asserting the difference between morality and the law, and if there’s one legal cornerstone upon which Christianity rests, it’s that the law cannot make one moral. Passing a law does not make an action moral or immoral. One cannot make theft moral by commanding it instead of banning it, nor can one make marriage immoral by banning it or by regulating it (e.g. laws forbidding mixed-race marriages) or an immoral* marriage moral by allowing it. The thing is moral or immoral on its own accord, and while law can (not must, can) flow from morality, “It’s against the law!” is primarily an argument from force, not morality. This is precisely the reason that Jesus spent so much effort pointing out that even those who obeyed even the smallest points of God's law could not claim any moral credit for doing so; they are simply two different things.

A second one is like it: no man can obey the law all the time. Peter says as much in Acts 15, when he answered the question of whether non-Jewish Christians were to follow the Law of Moses with another question: “Why do you tempt God by putting a yoke - which neither our fathers nor we have been able to bear – upon the necks of the disciples?" The answer was that they could not and they therefore did not. Even though the law was good (Rom 7:12) I cannot keep it. The Law of God is not applied to me, not by the church, and certainly not by a majority vote of other people, for with a law that I cannot obey comes a condemnation I cannot avoid.

But what about the people it was originally applied to, the people who promised to keep all of God’s law? They could not, of course, and many of them didn’t even try. But there’s a funny example that a lot of Christians use, for example, to make divorce more difficult. When the Pharisees asked Jesus why Moses allowed them to divorce their wives simply by writing a “Dear Jane” letter, he replied, “Because of the hardness of your hearts Moses allowed you to put away your wives, but from the beginning it was not this way” (Matt 19:8). Jesus called his disciples and his society to a higher moral standard than was found in the law, but that is not the only issue, nor even the main issue, when it comes to writing law.

The main issue is that God adjusted the law to how Man really was, not how he wanted them to be. God knew that a law that made divorce impossible would make life miserable (mostly for wives) and so he chose to allow the Israelites a lesser evil than marital misery: divorce. What God joined, God allowed to be separated because Man simply cannot live up to God’s standards. Jesus did not propose that Jewish society repeal what Moses gave them, he proposed that they individually live to a higher standard, that they choose to be more moral than the extant civil law commanded.

When Christians propose laws that make divorce more difficult than God made it, we are saying that our expectations of mankind are higher than God’s. We are saying, in fact, that we are holier than God says we are and that we can use the power of force in a way that God was unwilling to do to make people holier than God expected. In finding God’s revealed rules for civil living too loose, we are saying that we know better than God how Mankind will act in real life. That is a dangerous thing for a Christian to say.

But that all only applies in the negative, the passing of laws to forbid and condemn behavior. Is the case for the Christian libertarian based primarily on that? Of course not. The separation of law from morality is simply a necessary step in denying one of the foundations of modern political ideology: that what one person finds immoral, no one else ought to be able to do so long as one can whip up a majority to go along.

That idea is so foundational that it is seldom questioned, and while it is not limited to Christians by any means, Christians are most likely to put the argument in explicitly moral terms. We would ban prostitution for any number of named reasons, but the primary one is doubtless that we find the visiting of prostitutes to be immoral**.

We ban drug use for the same reason: we personally disapprove of the practice. Or more exactly, we disapprove of OTHER people taking part in the practice. People do not generally take part in practices that they find immoral, or when they do, they hide the fact rather than try to pass laws that will use the force of government to stop them from doing it.

But in addition to the call for the Christian to seek a higher morality no matter what the law says, there is another very important idea, a different standard, in the New Testament. That standard is one of individual liberty. After telling the Romans in Chapter 13 that love is the fulfillment of the law, Paul introduces another standard: “Let every man be fully persuaded in his own mind.” Whether it is eating meat or drinking wine or observing holy days***, Paul says, in essence, that what another person does is none of your business. "Who are you," he asks, “to judge another man’s servant? To his own master he stands or falls, but he shall be held up because God is able to make him stand.

What, in fact, Christianity calls for is the internal discipline of morality rather than the external discipline of civil law.

[End Part I, because I have a Spanish test Thursday, and I’m having a heck of a time conjugating a couple of particularly troublesome verbs. And besides, I’m not going to do all of Mike’s work].

* “immoral marriage” is probably an oxymoron. It might be better to say that which is not a marriage but is pretending to be one.

** Which it is for any number of reasons. None of this is designed to convince the Christian that his morality is wrong – i.e. that he should begin to do these things - only that he is incorrect in imposing the finer points of his morality by law.

*** See Commandment IV.

(hat tip: Therion)

Best to stay on the hair

Someone whose real name is John disses the book review while refusing to discuss the book:

John:
"The faith of anti-faith" = relativism at its best.

Smoke and mirrors, smoke and mirrors...

If you lack arguments, retreat into bizarre rhetoric.

... from Kansas, the "Intelligent Design State". LoL.

BTW, here are the author's credentials to attack an Oxford professor:

"Vox Day is a writer, columnist, software designer and the author of Rebel Moon, The World in Shadow, and The War in Heaven: Eternal Warriors Book 1. [obvious religious fundamentalist pretending to be scientifically objective, while not using his real name".

LOL.
El B*:
If we're going to discuss the book, I think it's going to turn out to be pretty helpful that one of us has actually read it.
John:
Maybe we can use our real names, too. BTW, my real name actually is "John".

I am not quite an Internet "pundit" yet, however.

Maybe I will assume a totally made-up name and launch a website where I call myself a "Christian libertarian" [contradiction in terms] or something, and then attack science.

Wow, that would be cool...
El B:
Just don't forget to make fun of his hair. That's always an effective approach, if I may be so bold as to offer advice.
John:
But the reality is, he still is hiding (in my view) behind a made-up name, whereas Harris and Dawkins aren't. Why ? Why doesn't he use his real name, and then we could read up on his credentials to attack people with PhDs?
El B:
Rather than reading up on credentials, I suggest just reading his book. Heck, you can even download it for free from his site. Then if he's such a goofball you could even write your own review illustrating point by point where his logic is faulty. I promise to read it as soon as we get internets in Kansas.

But reading a whole book and writing a review of it is a lot of work - I know, I did it, even though some of the big words tripped me up. Really I think the hair thing is your best bet.

If you had read the book you would have realized that your complaint about Day's qualifications is the first thing he deals with, even before the first chapter if I recall correctly. Yes, he did suspect that someone might have a hard time with a non-PhD poking holes in the arguments of a PhD.

The problem is that Dawkins (to pick an example that seems close to your heart) is not a PhD. Oh, sure, he has one in biology and is a respected scientist with qualifications as long as my arm. I'll give you that. So will Day.

But let's say I take my own degree (information systems) and I march right down to Dawkins's office and tell him a thing or two about cellular biology. Both he and you are going to say, "Dude, your degree is in a completely unrelated field. You don't speak with authority in this one."

Which is precisely the case with Dawkins. He does not have a degree in military history; in that field he speaks as an amateur. He does not have a degree in comparative religion; in that field he speaks as an amateur. He does not have a degree in childhood psychology; in that field he speaks as an amateur.

Which is why when Day attacks Dawkins's arguments IN THOSE FIELDS he shows with ease that Dawkins not only doesn't know what he's talking about, he has not done the requisite research to be able to.

Dawkins does the same thing you are doing above: assuming that a PhD allows one to speak with authority on any subject. If you read the book you'll soon see how mistaken that assumption is.
I thought it pretty damned funny that a guy who writes literally 100s of reviews under the name "John" complains that the opinions of those who choose not to reveal their identities publicly should be dismissed out of hand**.

But it's amazing that given the broad range of subjects John covered in a few short lines, from relativism*** to ID in Kansas to Christian libertarianism, we still find a complete lack of any desire to actually read the book and discuss the arguments therein. His entire rant is a litany of excuses as to why someone should NOT read the book, all while promoting an opinion about its contents.

This is called "scientific thinking" far more often than it should be.

* Actually, on Amazon I use my full, legal name. But I get annoyed looking at it and I know you will, too.

** Like it's hard to find out who Vox really is. I would say that "John" would have a hard time applying that argument to, say, the Federalist Papers, but I suspect he has likely never heard of them.

*** Though there is nothing relativistic about "the faith of anti-faith." Perhaps deliberately ironic, but not relativistic.

Sunday, February 03, 2008

Going in Style

El Presidente goes out with a bang:
WASHINGTON (AP) - In the nation's first-ever $3 trillion budget, President Bush seeks to seal his legacy of promoting a strong defense to fight terrorism and tax cuts to spur the economy...

The 2009 spending plan sent to Congress on Monday will project huge budget deficits, around $400 billion for this year and next and more than double the 2007 deficit of $163 billion.
Even with an admitted $400b deficit, the number is far too low. It admittedly does not contain the money that will be spent in Iraq*. It probably does not contain all the rebates and refunds and temporary tax cuts that will be used to "get the economy moving." It certainly contains rosy assumptions about tax collections and economic growth, as in all probability we are in a recession, a fact that will not be publicly admitted until it the Bush's replacement is inaugurated. Then it will be trumpeted as an excuse to spend even more.

In fact, if one was to add up all the realities that the budget ignores, he may not be far out of line in predicting that not only will we this year have the first $3 trillion dollar budget, we may also see the first $1 trillion dollar actual** cash deficit.

I did find this article from 4 short years ago rather amusing:
(AP) President Bush's goal of cutting in half a projected $500 billion federal deficit within five years is being dismissed as too timid by conservatives, unachievable by analysts and laughable by Democrats.

Mr. Bush will include the objective in the $2.3 trillion budget for 2005 he sends Congress in February...
4 years ago, the budget was $700 billion smaller (conversely, it has grown 30% in 3 years) while the official deficit has been "halved" from $500 billion to $400 billion. The conservatives, the analysts, and the Democrats were all correct. Of course, that doesn't means either the Democrats or the conservatives intend to do anything about it***.

Rather they just intend to laugh at the Americans who are about to elect a new president who, if it were imaginable, promises to find more even things to spend money on than the current one.

* Those are covered in "emergency appropriations," which means, "let's come back later and allocate money for the things we knew we would do but didn't want to count in the first round."

** One cannot honestly call it a "budget deficit," because these extras are not part of the budget. But they have an impact on government finances nonetheless. The "real" debt in the last fiscal year (ending Aug 2007) went from $8.5t to $9.0t, or a whopping $500 billion - slightly more than the announced deficit of $163 billion.

Since September 1 we have added another $238 billion, for an annual rate of ~$600b. And I haven't even got my rebate check yet.

*** Nor the analysts, but I don't blame them.