
I don't. I don't have the knowledge. I'm out of my league. Any scientist who knows anything, hell even any college kid who's had 3 credit hours of biology could rip anything I say say to shreds. I know that. But since fools rush in where angels fear to tread, I do need to comment on a story because it
illustrates so well what my major (personal) problem with evolution is*:
WASHINGTON (AP) -- It sounds like a stretch, but a new study suggests that the missing evolutionary link between whales and land animals is an odd raccoon-sized animal that looks like a long-tailed deer without antlers. Or an overgrown long-legged rat.
The key finding connecting the Indohyus to the whale is its thickened ear bone, something only seen in cetaceans.
The creature is called Indohyus, and recently dug up fossils reveal some crucial evolutionary similarities between it and water-dwelling cetaceans, such as whales, dolphins and porpoises.
For years, the hippo has been the leading candidate for the closest land relative because of its similar DNA and whale-like features. So some scientists were skeptical of the new hypothesis by an Ohio anatomy professor whose work was being published Thursday in the journal Nature.
Still, some researchers have been troubled that hippos seem to have lived in the wrong part of the world and popped up too recently to be a whale ancestor.
So while scientists generally accept that whales must have descended from land animals, the question asked above is, "Which one?"
Well, something like the hippo, which theory is based on DNA and its whale-like features**.
But the hippo is too young and lives in the wrong part of the world.
Well then it's the indohyus, which theory is based on its thickened ear-bone, something only seen in whale-like creatures***.
So maybe we don't know. Scientists believe it occurred, but they do not know how, they can't draw the tree with certainty. That's fine. That's not my problem. My problem is that if you really think about what they are doing above, if you really trying to reduce that to symbolic logic, it becomes a lot less impressive than all the Latin names they throw about.
So think about the logic for a second. How do we know that one thing descended from another, and how do we represent that symbolically?
The closest I can come is this:
If a is similar to b in x, then a descended from b or b descended from a.
Illustrating how it works is easy: if the whale is similar to the hippo in DNA, then the whale descended from the hippo or the hippo descended from the whale****. If the whale is similar to the indohyus in ear structure, then the whale descended from the indohyus or the indohyus descended from the whale.
You see the argument all the time, though it may be phrased like, "
humans and chimps share 96% of their DNA," or "
fossils of feathered dinosaurs ... are the strongest evidence yet that birds evolved from dinosaurs." When one hears an argument about how this descended from that or that from this, one is always looking at a variation of the above formula.
And the formula makes sense on the surface. My sons look like me, where they do, because they are my sons. My eldest daughter is so much like my wife that I sometimes wonder what part I had in her appearance on this earth. My youngest daughter looks a little less like us; that's because she is adopted, though a relative. My foster kids look even less like me because they are descended from Africans and I from Europeans. The formula makes sense.
Except when it doesn't. You see, there are people who look more like me than my sons do. They are my height, my weight, have my eye and hair color. According to the theory, those guys should have descended from me or I from them. Right?
"Aha!" says the clever evolutionist, "but if we test your DNA, we can show that they are your sons. And that uses the formula." And they are perfectly correct in this instance. The formula works in this specific instance, for this value of
x. But it doesn't work for whales; if it did, there would be no talk about ear bones, because there are other factors (like geologic age in this case) that trump the formula, that make its conclusions impossible.
And that leads us to a problem that appears any time you see two groups of scientists who can't agree on exactly how something descended from something else. The first problem is that "similar" is not a scientific concept but a subjective one. And the second is that we cannot agree, when there are multiple values for
x - and there are infinite possible ones - which one is most important.
Take the second one first, because it leads back to the first. If we are to discover from whence the whale descends, which similarity trumps, ear bones or DNA? One might be tempted to say DNA*****, except that the rhino is too late to be the ancestor, which case we have reached a demonstrably false conclusion, even though we followed the formula. But if one goes with ear bones, then we are ok, except what about knee bones? What about the bones of the sinuses? So how do we choose which bones are important, given that ALL comparisons will have some level of similarity and dissimilarity? We cannot.
x in our formula is not an objective value, but a subjective choice that ignores all the other possible values of
x simply because they do not fit the theory****** or do not fit it as well. If we compare all of the bones and choose only those that fit our theory, then we are back to our old friend, the
Green Car Fallacy.
The second problem is similar: what does "similar" mean? Any two structures, any two things possess similarities and dissimilarities. At what level do they become meaningful? 96%? 99%? How do we measure the similarity of the upright walk of man with Lucy as compared to the upright walk of a chicken? Which similarities are significantly similar and which not? Again, we have a subjective choice, not a mathematical/logical one.
So in short (ha!) it seems to ignorant little me that the entire superstructure of evolutionary argument, every specific argument where we decide that
a descended from b, is based on a logical formula that:
a) can be shown to not work in some instances*******;
b) contains a subjectively-selected variable (x); and
c) contains at least one term, similarity, that is similarly subjective.
That might just be fine, for we know that in some cases the formula works. But (and it's a big but) if it is truly a scientific formula on the level of E=MC^2 (cfdxprt, check my notation here), then we should be able to apply it in the negative. We should be able to tell what
b is NOT descended from what
a by its failure, its dissimilarity, of
x.
If a whale is descended from a indohyus because in this case,
x is a thickened ear bone, and if our theory is a logical/mathematical/scientific one, can we not argue that if
x is a blowhole, which indohyus does not have, then whales are not descended from indohyus? Same formula, same logic, why not the same logical conclusion?
Of course, the answer will be that the blowhole evolved later - which may very well be correct - but it certainly blows a hole in the logic of our theory.
It seems to me that a scientific theory is only as strong as the scientific/logical argument that underpins it. And if
If a is similar to b in x, then a descended from b or b descended from a is unscientific, or weak, or demonstrably false in some instances, then no matter how many occurrences of the formula are applied, no matter how many
xs there are, no matter how many men in lab coats argue otherwise, the result simply cannot be scientific.
* Of course, as soon as one has a problem with evolution, one is immediately accused of being a closet creationalist. In my defense, I think I've been as hard on them as on evolutionalists, and when their arguments are not solid, I call them as such, like here when I took a year to find a rather important piece of data that Bill Cooper missed in After the Flood, or here, when I proposed that a quote that turns up in creationalist materials probably is not genuine, or at least not verifiable. I try to be fair with the data, but in an emotionally-charged debate such as this one can sometimes not avoid being called names by a side when it turns out you're not completely on theirs. That applies equally to being called a "modernist" by conservative Christians and being called a creationalist by evolutionalists. I've been called worse, trust me.
** Certainly the hippo's blowhole did not escape you?
*** Especially those bigger than raccoons. Or we could propose that indohyus evolved into hippos, where they lost the thick ear bones, but regained them when they became whales. But that doesn't get us anywhere, really.
**** Picking which is easy: the younger descended from the older. It can be no other way.
***** it being more 'scientific,' or at least having a more scientific-sounding acronym.
****** Don't believe me? Try this: One will find, and the argument is too common to footnote - if you're interested, any discussion of Donald Johanson's "Lucy" should suffice - that the closest apelike ancestor to humans is one that walked upright like we do. In other words, "If a (Lucy) is similar to b (man) in x (that it walked upright), then man descended from Lucy. Crude, but that's the argument, or one of many that take the same shape. Now try this: If a (a chicken) is similar to b (man) in x (that it walked upright)... See the problem?
******* It can be made to work by proposing hypothetical values of a or b (missing links) that have hypothetical values of x, but that's not really science, now is it?