El Borak's Myopia


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Acceleration


cfdxprt just had to invoke the Mogambo, didn't he? Coincidentally, the Mighty One mentions the same article on inflation I hit on last week (he being a weekly* publication), and after reading him tonight, I realized I had not done a good "sky is falling" post in a while. Maybe I never have unless you like that sort of thing. But anyway.

I mentioned something about 2 years ago which I think we are seeing again, but rather than in one place, it's all over every place:
If there's one word that describes the current government fiscal situation it's "acceleration." The problem is not simply that debt is increasing (though that IS a problem) but that it is increasing at an increasing rate. As El Presidente finds more and more critical problems at which to throw borrowed and newly-printed money, the fiscal condition of the US spins, frankly, out of control.
Gold crossed $800 an ounce today (up 10% in 3 weeks), and if you click over to Mogambo and take a look at the yearly chart, you'll see the same thing you see on the debt chart at the above post, acceleration. Oil finally crossed my nightmare threshold of 90 a week ago. Tonight it's trading above $95. The monthly chart going back to 1999 shows not just a rise, but acceleration. The dollar chart above needs little** explanation as I've contused that supine equine enough. But look at the moving averages (those three colored lines that move together), they show acceleration.

It was only last freaking month that I wrote this:
But stocks up or stocks down, here are the important numbers of the day: The dollar chart...is again within half of 1% of the line-in-the-sand at 80, gold is up $15 to near $700, Oil is up $1 to $76, just off its all-time high.
In those few weeks the dollar has fallen to 76, gold is up $100, oil up $20. Acceleration.

Some months ago, a fellow I don't know (and who never returned) asked in the comments, "When?" When is this going to happen? When is the sky going to fall? All you bears, everything you say was said before yet here we are. And I didn't have an answer then and I don't have an answer now except for this:

I've had three SHTF tests for better than a decade, and I have mentioned all of them here as long as I've had a blog. Two of them I mentioned last in July:
80 has always held. Maybe it will hold again. So long as oil does not cross $90, I don't think we are close to panic time.
Both of those lines are now crossed. The third test is gold closing above its all-time high. To be honest, I always that that the most inevitable and that it would be first. It's not yet. We have about 10% to go, the amount of ground we covered this month alone.

The Fed lowered rates again today. That's dollar-negative, it drives people out of dollars (lower rates means less reward for owning them). That will accelerate the dollar's fall*** and gold's and oil's rise. They had no choice: being a political creature they have to do what they can to delay the pain. And they will do more, much more.

I don't think we are in panic time, but we are closer to panic time than we were a month ago. Much closer. The bad numbers are increasing at an increasing rate. Debt: accelerating. Dollar drop: accelerating. Oil price: accelerating. Gold: accelerating. Retirees: accelerating. Mortgage lender bankruptcies: well, that would be accelerating if the market still existed. The house price drop will begin accelerating very soon, replacing the "wealth effect" with an offsetting "poverty effect."

So when? When do we get to live through a period we will preface with "The Great" and speak of to our grandchildren only in hushed tones?

Too soon for too many. Save your nickels.

* As opposed to my "weakly" by comparison, which is why I don't spend my weekends being flown all over the world to tell investors that WE'RE ALL FREAKING DOOMED(tm) like Mogambo.

** For those who like footnotes, I will just mention that 80 on that chart has been a floor going back as long as there have been free-floating currencies; we are now 4-5% below that.That said, in all fairness, like the Dow (and the CPI), the Dollar Index does not mean the same thing over time, because items are constantly substituted. But lines often measure sentiment as much as anything, and every nation that has dollars (and there are a lot of them with a lot of dollars) knows that 80 has always held. Until now.

*** Though I do suspect (but would never bet) we may get one more monster rally that could last for months and take us up 10-15% - with everyone this negative, it's a perfect time to burn the shorts.

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Pluck Yew

A bit of historical trivia arrives via email:
Before the Battle of Agincourt in 1415, the French, anticipating victory over the English, proposed to cut off the middle finger of all captured English soldiers. Without the middle finger it would be impossible to draw the renowned English longbow and therefore they would be incapable of fighting in the future. This famous English longbow was made of the native English Yew tree, and the act of drawing the longbow was known as "plucking the yew" (or "pluck yew").

Much to the bewilderment of the French, the English won a major upset and began mocking the French by waving their middle fingers at the defeated French, saying, See, we can still pluck yew! Since 'pluck yew' is rather difficult to say, the difficult consonant cluster at the beginning has gradually changed to a labiodentals fricative F', and thus the words often used in conjunction with the one-finger-salute! It is also because of the pheasant feathers on the arrows used with the longbow that the symbolic gesture is known as "giving the bird."

IT IS STILL AN APPROPRIATE SALUTE TO THE FRENCH TODAY!

And yew thought yew knew every plucking thing.
As is often the case, the truth is both more obscure and less interesting. Cecil Adams did a pretty good piece on it a few years back, tracing the finger to the Romans* and Greeks**.

But it may actually be older than that. Since we've spent so much time taking bible verses out of context here recently, I have another one, this one from circa 700bc:

"Then shalt thou call, and the LORD shall answer; thou shalt cry, and he shall say, 'Here I am.' If thou take away from the midst of thee the yoke, the putting forth of the finger, and speaking vanity... the LORD shall guide thee continually..." - Isa 58:9,11

But that one might be just a bit speculative, I'll admit...

* Suetonius mentions that one of the reasons Gaius Caligula was murdered was that he gave his officers the finger:
When they had decided to attempt his life at the exhibition of the Palatine games, as he went out at noon, Cassius Chaerea, tribune of a cohort of the praetorian guard, claimed for himself the principal part; for Gaius used to taunt him, a man already well on in years, with voluptuousness and effeminacy by every form of insult. When he asked for the watch word Gaius would give him "Priapus" or "Venus," and when Chaerea had occasion to thank him for anything, he would hold out his hand to kiss, forming and moving it in an obscene fashion.
Flipping off men with swords is still a pretty poor idea.

** One edition of the Satyricon explains the gesture
this way:
"If anyone calls you a catamite, Sextillus," says Martial, ii, 28, "return the compliment and hold out your middle finger to him." According to Ramiresius, this custom was still common in the Spain of his day (1600), and it still persists in Spanish and Italian countries, as well as in their colonies. This position of the fingers was supposed to represent the buttocks with a priapus inserted up the fundament; it was called "Iliga," by the Spaniards. From this comes the ancient custom of suspending little priapi from boys' necks to avert the evil eye.

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Give me a pointy hat, too

TOUT-TV makes an amazing discovery:
So you scrapped your costly European vacation on account of the weak dollar. You did so to pay for your ever-increasing energy bills. Did you ever consider that the two might be related?
No, dude, I never thought that the falling dollar would affect the price of anything but caviar in Schtaad. See, it's insight like this that keeps me glued to CNBC all day long...


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Prooftexting gets nasty

I'm pretty sure that's not what Solomon meant:
[T]here are millions of people throughout history who have actually swallowed the idea of urine as medicine. It is often called urotherapy.

"Drink waters out of thine own cistern"
- Book of Proverbs

Given a choice between "a flagon most foul with rancid port" and drinking their own urine, most will probably choose the rancid port. Surprisingly though, many would not. The belief that urine has powerful healing properties existed even centuries before the Bible extolled its virtues.
Maybe I'm just a little skeptical of the benefits of recycling absolutely everything, but I'm pretty sure the Bible does not extoll the virtues of drinking your own urine. And while the proof text above is obviously poetic* rather than literal, the context is such that I think a lot of people who think** God wants them to drink their own urine are going to be surprised when it is interpreted properly.

The quote is from Proverbs 5, the first 14 verses of which are a plea to a son to avoid adultery. Verse 15 (the one noted above) begins a "counterpoint***" section, which concludes: "Let thy fountain be blessed: and rejoice with the wife of thy youth. Let her be as the loving hind and pleasant roe; let her breasts satisfy thee at all times; and be thou ravished always with her love." (vv 18-19, KJV). Why God would drop an admonition to enjoy a frosty mug of Urinade in the middle of such a monologue remains unexplained****.

But that does not mean that there are no occasions in which the Bible mentions such an act as a possibility. In 701bc, The Assyrian army was beseiging Jerusalem, and king Sennacherib sent one of his captains, a man named Rabshekah, up to negotiate the city's surrender:

Then Eliakim (King Hezekiah's messenger) ... said to Rabshakeh, "Please speak in the Syrian language, because we understand it. Do not speak with us in the Jews’ language within the hearing of the people that are on the wall."

But Rabshakeh replied, "Has my master sent me only to your master and you to give my message? He has sent me to the men who sit on the wall, that they may eat their own dung, and drink their own piss with you."

Then Rabshakeh stood and cried with a loud voice in the Jews’ language, "Hear the word of the great king, the king of Assyria! This is what the king says, 'Do not let Hezekiah deceive you, for he will not be able to deliver you out of my hand.'" (2 Kings 18:26-28)

Perhaps rather than threatening them with starvation if they did not surrender, he was offering them medical advice...

* they could have made an even better case by including the rest of the verse: "...and running waters out of thine own well."

** obviously I'm using this word loosely.

*** Not as in "Maybe you should commit adultery after all" but as in "Point: Don't chase hookers. Counterpoint: chase your wife." It is a change of perspective, not one of direction.


**** Which is something of a shame, actually.

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Wanted: recipes

Sometimes the answer is embedded in the question:
According to Kathy Warnick, president of Pets Across America, the largest umbrella organization for animal shelters serving more than 130 million people, global warming is thought to be a contributing factor to the dramatic increase of stray, owned, and feral cats...

The organization associates their steady increase of cat intake — a startling 7 percent last year alone — to likely be an example of how warmer climates really do affect the number of cats breeding more frequently.
Let's see, they have lots of cats, and they claim to serve 130 million people. It seems to me that the easiest solution* is to serve the cats to the people. Then you don't need to worry about global warming. All you need is a steady supply of taco shells and cayene pepper.

* Assuming they do not serve people like McDonald's serves hamburgers.


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Help out Whitey

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Awaiting the gap

CNN Money points out a pessimistic portent*:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of vacant homes for sale rose in the third quarter, according to the latest government reading that casts new harsh light on the weakness of the housing market.

The Census Bureau report puts the number of vacant homes for sale at 2.07 million in the period, up about 2 percent from the second quarter, and 7 percent above year ago levels...

There are estimates that about 2.8 million homeowners could see the payments on their subprime mortgages reset higher in the next two years. If they can't afford the new payments or be able to refinance due to the significantly tighter mortgage market, that could cause an additional flood of empty homes onto the market.

"It's very hard to see how this doesn't get worse," Baker said. "It's certainly possible we could see 3 million, maybe 4 million (vacant homes on the market.)"
The important point to note is that these are not total homes on the market, but vacant ones, unoccupied ones, "extra" homes that no one is presently living in. And since we can assume that everyone who was living in these homes is now living somewhere else, and since we can assume that most everyone who would move into them will leave an empty home behind, the number of empty homes on the market is not simply a "weakness" in the market, but is rather indicative of two structural issues.

The first is simply one of overbuilding. There can be no doubt that the current housing market is horribly overbuilt, that too many of these homes are second homes built for flippers who intended to sell them in a hot market or rent them to people who never materialized, and too many are spec homes built by builders because that's what builders do**. There are simply too many homes for all the current potential buyers to buy.

But the second*** is one that is far more serious than a few builders just getting ahead of themselves. With prices of all those things not included in 'inflation' rising by double digits, there will be fewer people who can afford homes at any price - in short, the number of potential buyers is dropping. Combine that with the abject fear of mortgage lenders to hand money over to marginal credit risks - ARMs and jumbos are, for the most part, a thing of the past - and you further reduce the number of potential buyers. This is not simply a pause where we wait to grow into the current supply, but quite possibly a sea change that will overcompensate for the excesses of the past decade or more. We are not about to pause here until the number of buyers rises, we are reaching a point where the number of houses must go down to meet them. Work through in your mind potential secenarios for that.

And the prices of houses need to go down as well. They have not yet, in large measure because of market gridlock. People, especially those who have recently moved in, must price their homes based on the price they paid - after all, with no equity and little money in the bank, they need 6% more (to cover the commission) than they paid just to leave empty-handed. but there are no buyers at that price, so they sit, and worry, and panic. They cannot afford to sell at the current, lower value of their home, but occasionally they must move anyway, leaving behind an empty home, and they can no more afford 2 mortgages than they could one. They must, at some point, find a way to walk away, to get out from under it, or they will go bankrupt. If they can't find a way, it will happen when they go bankrupt.

That is what is building presently. Home sales are dropping, 14% in St. Louis, 38% across Florida (44% in Polk County) and by half in some areas of California. This is not a weak market, it is a market locking up. And when a market locks up, the pressure builds. Like an earthquake it must break loose one way or the other. With the number of potential buyers dropping and the financial pressure on millions of individuals and companies to get out from under the overage, that breakout, one that leaves an unprecedented gap in the charts, is overwhelmingly likely to be down. Down as far as 2005 was up, and a whole lot faster.

* alliteration alert

** Until they go bankrupt, which is what is starting to happen now.

*** And more merely potential, I'll admit.

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My favorite fight scene



(hat tip: JD)


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Getting around the inconvenient

In dealing with Jesus' water-to-wine miracle, Pastor Kevin shows how it's done:
How do we come to the conclusion about what type of "wine" this was? First, we must look at the immediate context. Notice what the governor of the feast said concerning the quality of the wine in John 2:10 "Every man at the beginning doth set forth good wine; and when men have well drunk, then that which is worse: but thou hast kept the good wine until now."

This man, after having "well drunk" of the previous wine was still able to discern the difference between the wine that had formerly been served and the wine that Jesus created. If the wine were alcoholic, then he would not be able to discern the difference at all.

The first thing that alcohol impairs in the mind is the sense of judgment and after having "well drunk" of alcohol this man should not be able to discern the appearance of the person in front of him, much less the quality of two different types of drink. Yet, he can discern between the two. This indicates that the wine was of the non-alcoholic sort.
Actually, it indicates exactly the opposite, that Jesus created 160 gallons of excellent, alcoholic wine, and he didn't bother to ask the Church of Christ for their permission.

The backstory for the biblically impaired is this: Jesus is invited to a wedding* at Cana, a small town in Galilee, and the wine runs out. His mother complains to him about the fact, and Jesus at her urging performs his first miracle. He instructs the servants to bring a whole bunch of jugs of water, then tells them to dip a cup in one of them and take it to the governor**, who makes the declaration to the bridegroom that the best was truly saved for last. Then Christians say it was really grape juice.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves here. Let's break down the governor's statement*** (italicized above) and see if we can find the truth. You have the CoC's interpretation, here's mine:

"Every man" — This shows his statement to be one of general practice, not of the current party. He is informing the bridegroom of "how things are normally done," after which he will note that in this particular case, that protocol has been violated.

"at the beginning doth set forth good wine; and when the men have well drunk, that which is worse" — This proves that the wine we are dealing with in general practice is alcoholic. Alcohol, as the CoC notes, dulls the senses, including taste, and the reason the bad wine is served last is so it doesn't taste quite so bad. Grape juice would not dull anything, so to insist that this is naught but grape juice removes the very meaning from the governor’s statement****.

"But thou hast kept the good wine until now" — This is where the general practice becomes particular, thou hast. After saying that the general practice is to serve the good wine first, he informs the bridegroom that the order has been upset in this case; he has saved the best for last. There's no theological application; it's just a recognition of the high quality of the wine.

Now the governor had just been given a cup to drink, and he did not know its origin. There is no reason for him to believe that it is any different than the alcoholic wine previously served. And just as we know the difference - and draw a distinction - between wine and grape juice, so did he. But he did not say "thou hast kept the grape juice," but "the good wine," wine that is the same as the wine that had previously run out. Therefore we can conclude that the wine Jesus created was the same as normally served, i.e. alcoholic wine.

One significant problem with the CoC's interpretation is that they assume that the governor himself has been drinking - that when he says "the men have well drunk" as a general principle he is referring to himself in this specific instance - but that is in all likelihood not the case. Of all the people at the wedding, the governor was the least likely to have drunk anything because unlike the others he's not celebrating: he's working.

But the major problem is that they just can't bring themselves to believe Jesus created 160 gallons of real wine, even though the Bible tells us so.

* His own, according to "Holy Blood Holy Grail." That was a pretty funny book.

** Not an elected official but a hired hand whose job it was to organize the party. We might consider him the head caterer, wine steward, or master of ceremonies today.

*** I'll even keep it in the KJV English, just to be fair.

**** Not to mention (even as I do) the gastro-intestinal effects on a crowd, however large (the Jews had big weddings and they lasted for a long time) of 160 gallons of pure grape juice. Just drinking one glass of that gives me the trots.

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A dangerous overreliance on technology


TOKYO - Did you just grope me? Shall we head to the police? That's the message women are flashing on their cell phones with a popular program designed to ward off wandering hands in Japan's congested commuter trains...

The application flashes increasingly threatening messages in bold print on the phone's screen to show to the offender: "Excuse me, did you just grope me?" "Groping is a crime," and finally, "Shall we head to the police?" ...

The application, which can be downloaded for free on Web-enabled phones, is for women who want to scare away perverts with minimum hassle and without attracting attention, according to Takahashi's Web site.

"I first downloaded this as a joke," said Spicy Soft official Michika Izumi. "But I think it could be a lifesaver if I get groped."

Even granted that "lifesaver" is a bit of rhetorical excess, this is a fine example of technology that makes everyone feel better while accomplishing absolutely nothing. Seriously, if you flash the question, "Excuse me, did you just grope me?" to a groper rather than simply saying it, all you have relayed is that you don't want a hassle and don't want attention, pretty much what the groper wants (though admittedly those are #2 and #3 on his priority list).

Flashing, "Shall we head to the police?" when you have already admitted that you cannot bring yourself even to speak to him and really don't want to make a scene will certainly bring a smile to his face.

There are two strategies that will work far better, I think. One is to use the cell phone to take a picture of the groper, either for displaying on the web or turning over to the police or the press*. That worked pretty well with this guy**. The second one is to turn toward the groper, whisper softly in his ear, "I'm glad you find me attractive. That really made my day," and then bring your knee up as hard as you can.

Then if you still want to take a picture of him you can, but I think the problem will be pretty much solved at that point.

* Or all of them. There's no need to be exclusive.

** No relation, swear to God.

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The only problem with the slippery slope

Is that the bottom eventually arrives:
A radical plan to improve the nation's health - including a workplace "exercise hour" - has been unveiled by a leading Government adviser.

New figures today show England is the fattest country in the EU. Now Professor Julian Le Grand, chairman of Health England, hopes to encourage people to improve their diets, give up smoking and exercise more.

He proposed the introduction of a smoking permit, which smokers would be required to show each time they bought tobacco. It is then their choice to go smoke free and not buy a permit.

Companies with more than 500 staff would have an " exercise hour". Employees would have to deliberately choose not to join in...
Not join in for now, they mean. It's easy to say that this is just England. And it's easy to note (as the article does) that this is still the opposite of current government policy. But the problem remains that it is still obscenely logical. And if it follows from the premise, it will eventually arrive.

Walk thru this with me:

a) Government is responsible for ensuring that people do not hurt themselves. This is the only the argument behind anti-smoking laws, drinking ages, seatbelt laws, and sin taxes. Why should the government punish you for not wearing a seatbelt? Because it does not want you to hurt yourself.

b) Not being healthy is one way of hurting yourself. Therefore it follows that Government is responsible for making sure that everyone receives proper health care. We will eventually get a "single-payer" plan* because everyone needs to be healthy, and unless government steps up, that won't happen.

c) He who pays the piper calls the tune. Therefore it follows that since the government will be paying for your health care, the government will have the final say over what care you get. It is a simple fact that even (maybe especially) if government runs health care, there will be rationing. It always and everywhere happens, and somebody has to decide who deserves** the scarce resources. They begin by denying care to the expensive***, but that still does not allow everyone to have all they want for free. They still must reduce costs, which always rise under socialism, there being no market incentive for keeping them down.

d) Unhealthy people cost more than healthy ones. Therefore it follows that the government can force you to exercise and eat healthy. They do not today, just like in the 60s when they demanded the surgeon general's warning on a pack of cigs they were not banning smoking in your own car. But it followed logically and therefore would eventually arrive.

The problem with the slippery slope is not that it's a logical fallacy**** but that it's an eventuality. As soon as you accept the premise that government exists to protect you from yourself, you have no argument against the government forcing you to exercise every day. The only question that remains is how long it will take for them to enforce it.

* Assuming, which I don't, that the dollar survives the first Rodham administration.

** Besides themselves, obviously.

*** It starts with the fat smoker and ends with the preemie, the aged, and the handicapped.

**** It only seems a fallacy because most people can't reason over time.

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I didn't make this one


but I like it just the same.

(hat tip: Jozum)


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I just bought this

For $10, plus twice that to ship it priority mail to my house from New York.

Anyone want to take a guess at what it is? Get it right and in 6 months I'll share with you what it's designed to help create.


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A Parade of Idiots



The woman who says, "I feel that my parents' grave has been robbed" because she dropped her $600k inheritance on a house worth maybe half that has got to be queen of the Island of Misfit Real Estate Flippers. All she needs is a plastic crown made of old credit cards.


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Bede, we never knew ye

So I'm playing around in LimeWire today trying to find some out-of-print English history books. Basically, I'm checking up on Bede's account of the arrival of the Picts, which he claimed was centuries before his own day - since he didn't see it, he must have had a source. And since Nennius reports the same thing, obviously it might help in tracking Nennius' sources to discover Bede's.

I never tried the Gnutella Network before, but figured what the heck, you never know what you'll find. I even put some public-domain .MP3 files of Gildas' "On the Ruin of Britain" in my shared folder for anyone interested. After all, I wouldn't want to be a leech*.

Anyway, there are apparently people out there who will go to great lengths in an effort to get you to download their software no matter what you're looking for. I assume what they are offering, rather than out-of-print tomes, are ZIPped up Trojan horses or some such and that they change file names to match your searches.

How can I be so sure they are not what I'm really looking for? Well, with titles like these, let's just say I'm a mite suspicious:

Sexy Venerable Bede
Venerable Bede Hentai Anime
Venerable Bede Young and Cute (DVD Rip)
[Full] Venerable Bede Naked
Venerable Bede (uncensored)
Venerable Bede Wet and Wild
Venerable Bede Sexy Webcam

I mean sure, I'm not absolutely certain that the Venerable One didn't have a webcam that he danced naked in front of after vespers. But I am absolutely certain that if he did have one, I don't want to see it.

* Hey, they are great files. Look, I can't help that I'm a geek. Stop making fun of me.


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An Historical Curveball

Parliament is still baffled:
The passing of the Stamp Act, therefore, galvanised American public opinion against Britain, stimulating inter-colonial political awareness and co-operation. Indeed it met with an open and unexpectedly determined opposition, with many arguing that it was not only unconstitutional but an infringement on their liberty, and calling for greater political freedom under the slogan of 'no taxation without representation'. The ensuing intense political debate focused initially on the issue of Parliamentary representation, but soon expanded into wider questions of sovereignty.
It never was about representation. I know that's an unusual claim to make, especially in this modern era where our own nation's capital issues license plates with the slogan 'Taxation Without Representation' in an effort to lobby for a representative and a pair of senators.

The slogan lends itself quite well to that particular interpretation - which is why it has so long been interpreted just that way - but if representation was the issue, then the issue could be settled (and the taxes approved) by providing America with a few representatives in Parliament.

But there was never an American plan to do so, and the few* British plans of the time illustrate the predicament the Americans would have gotten themselves into had they pushed the issue in that direction. Under the old British system, cities and counties each had representation in Parliament. London, at 700,000 people, had 8 representatives out of the nearly 600, and counties generally got but 2. Virginia, our largest colony, had barely 500k in total and no cities that even came within an order of magnitude of London. It would have been considered a county and might have had an extra MP or two to represent urban areas. In fact, under the British plans, America (which included both Canada and the British West Indies, whose representatives could be counted on to remain under the thumb of parliament**) would have had at best 30 MPs of 600, and in return they would have had to submit to all manner of direct British taxation. It would have been a terrible deal, and the Americans knew it, which is why they never pushed it.

But the British thought it a bad idea as well. Since Parliament already claimed the right to tax the colonies, they didn't see any gain from inviting these uncultured provincials into their midst. And with America doubling in population every 25 years (Ben Franklin's claim to Parliament) it would not take long before America just might need more representation. A lot more. So much more that a passing rumour that Parliament might have to eventaully meet in America so scared the proper*** British that the plans quickly died.

What the Americans wanted, simply, was no direct taxation. But it was not as if they were being greedy; they were already suffering under a virtual tax burden far and above what the already-overtaxed British were themselves suffering. This was not, of course, what the British thought, nor does it appear in history books of the period. But work with me on this.

Under the various Navigation Acts, Americans could not send**** most of their goods to anywhere but Britain. So let's say the world market price for tobacco was $3 a pound (I'm making up numbers here to make the math easy but the proportions are accurate), the Americans got $1 a pound for shipping it to Britain and the British re-exported 85% of it for the full $3. What is that $2 a pound difference if not an effective tax? In fact, if we calculate it as a tax, it's on the order of 67% (we keep 1 dollar in 3) or 200% (We pay 2 dollars on 1) depending how you calculate it.

In short, America was by law dependent upon British traders who set the price for everything they exported or imported. Therefore the difference between what the British merchants demanded and what Americans could have received in a free market was effectively a tax.

Americans chafed under that, but they were willing to suffer it. But when the British began to demand pounds sterling (which we could not produce) for goods and then cut the Americans off from places we could get it in trade (like the Dutch West Indies) Americans began to sink quickly into debt, a problem compounded by the depression that followed the French and Indian War. When they then demanded that we pay pounds sterling in taxes as well, that was too much.

So when the cry of "No Taxation without Representation," went up, it was not a demand for representation, but a ruse, a curveball, a seemingly-reasonable demand based on a prerequisite that thoughtful Americans expected (and fervently hoped) would never be met. In fact, they probably would have worked to torpedo it if it was seriously considered*****.

So back to DC. They want representation to go with their taxation, but they, like the British, already receive much of their income from the taxation of others. For those others, I wonder how many of them would be willing to give up a few senators and representatives if it meant paying absolutely no direct federal taxes?

More than a few, I suspect. That is, after all, the American way.

* I have seen but two that got so far as to put real numbers down.

** The Indies were not colonies like America, but rather huge plantations owned by lords who were already in Parliament, Canada was populated mostly by French farmers who were, until the Quebec Act of 1774, disenfranchised.

*** Proper here meaning those who had no intention of visiting America, ever, if they could help it. Which was most of them.

**** and were completely forbidden from making most manufactured goods, lest they compete with Britain. Even if they produced cloth in their homes, it was unlawful to send it from, say, New York to New Jersey.

***** and if they had any torpedos, which they didn't.

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The missing word

It's almost as if there's a conspiracy to avoid an embarassing conclusion:
NEW YORK (AP) - The calculus of living paycheck to paycheck in America is getting harder.

What used to last four days might last half that long now... "It even costs more to get the basics like soap and laundry detergent," said Michelle Grassia ...

Sales data show a marked and more prolonged drop in spending in the days before shoppers get their paychecks, when they buy only the barest essentials before splurging around payday.

"It's pretty pronounced," said Kiley Rawlins, a spokeswoman at Family Dollar. "It seems like to us, customers are running out of food products, paper towels sooner in the month."
Paychecks running out. People skipping meals. Rising costs for food, energy, rent, and basic necessities. People substituting* cheaper foods for more expensive. The article mentions that egg prices are up 44% for the year, milk up 21%. But there's still something missing.

Had this article been written in the 70s, those very facts would have led the press to scream "inflation," but I'm glad to report that the I-word is not mentioned in this whole article. Instead, we get a mention of possible recession, and one of subprime, and even one of "higher fuel costs" being a major reason for increasing food costs.

But no inflation so see here, people, move along. Uncle Sam assures us that while food prices may be up 4.1% for the year**, regular old inflation is up only half that - or put another way, "a separate (government) report on consumer prices, excluding food and energy items, suggested that inflation was contained***, giving policy makers leeway to cut U.S. rates for the second time this year."

And cutting rates, I suspect, is a far more important issue for Uncle Sam and his financiers than how many people are learning how to cook squash because they can't afford something edible****.

* This "substitution effect" is the reason the gov't in 1998 changed the way it calculated inflation, because in their words, "the current CPI, when compared with a measure that reflects this substitution effect, tends to overstate the rate of price increase consumers experience." In short, if instead of eating $10 worth of steak for dinner you're eating $10 worth of Alpo, there's no inflation. Your food is still costing you the same.

** Tell that to the chickens, they're getting ripped off.

*** Remember when subprime was contained? That was awesome!

**** Now, all that said, I do not believe that Uncle Sam is *completely* at fault here. People who shop for basics at 7-11 are paying more than they need to, and the claim that "Shoppers can't afford to load up at the supermarket and are going to the most convenient places to buy emergency food items like milk and eggs" makes no sense. Last time I checked, supermarkets did not enforce a minimum purchase. Besides, eating squash is good for you. As Calvin's dad once noted, "being miserable builds character."

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Conformity

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Now to find a cheap printer

I buy better than 3000 books a year. Not for my own reading, obviously, but being the owner of an online bookstore it's necessary to purchase that number simply to stay at the 7000-title level. I don't sell them all one at a time, but also provide bulk books for a number of brick-and-mortar stores across the country. On Monday I shipped, in addition to a few dozen individual orders, 378 Sci-fi, Western, and True Crime paperbacks to one of them. Each one of them had been lovingly (ha!) hand-picked, usually in a mad scramble on bag day at some book fair. You have barely enough time to test the binding and check for hilighting, then in the bag it goes. I have bought upwards of 800 books an hour that way (I can fit 60-80 in a paper grocery bag and pay $3-$5 a bag) but the hours that's available are few. The good stuff goes pretty quickly with several hundred other shoppers doing the same thing, and few are the sales that can justify 600 miles of driving for a few hours of frantic shopping.

Most often, time at a book fair is spent going over tables slowly, looking for titles I know I can turn over quickly. Or know that I want for myself.

The ones that go in my personal collection are a fairly rare breed: old econ books, old specialized history or archaeology books, and especially old bible commentaries, the rare ones that no one really wants. And Genesis commentaries are my favorite*.

Well, call me a slow learner but even though I've been using specific Google Books (as well as searching Archive.org) for a year or more - mostly for finding old Nennius references - this week was the first time I did a search to find as many commentaries on Genesis as I could find. Partially this was to check up on early iterations of the Tablet Theory and Documentary Hypothesis, mostly it was to see what titles existed so I could find them, cheaply if possible, on Amazon or Alibris.

I found nearly 30, dating from the 1600s to 1907, and I had never seen a single one at any sale I've ever attended. Some of them were valuable, some of them worthless, and in one I found a specific quote related to the Tablet Theory that I'd been looking for: a man named Driver looked at the toledoths, incorrectly concluded they were introductory rather than summary, and then suggested that the one at Gen 2:4 had been moved from the beginning of Genesis because it didn't fit his theory where it was! Yes, there are green cars in theology, too.

So I downloaded them all in .PDF, copied them to CD, and loaded them onto the laptop and will put them on my bookstore computer as well, just for safekeeping. But there's only one problem: I hate reading books on a screen.

There's something to be said for having a paper copy. When I first discovered Cooper's "After the Flood" online, I printed off the whole thing, page by page, and bound it myself in one of those cardboard 2-ring binders from Wal-Mart that seldom stay together, and scribbled notes all over it**. I did the same thing for "Ancient Lives of Saint Patrick," (I had purchased an 1895 copy for $20, but it 'disappeared' before it could be shipped to me, and the next cheapest hardcover was 5x as much) and any number of classical and medieval histories (mostly the ones, like Thallus' "Jugurthine Wars"***, that are too small to be published alone) and now have a whole cabinet full of them. Trying to keep track of dozens of poorly-bound, poorly-marked "manuscripts," I understand how a Medieval librarian must have felt****.

So now I've got them in electronic form, some of them running up to 700 pages; obviously I'm not going to print them all out. So what I need to find is one of those vanity printers who will do hardcovers on demand from .PDFs, hopefully for less than $50 a copy.

Then I'm going to need to buy a bigger building to put my collection in, I'm afraid.

* For some reason I suspect that fact may not have been missed by you, my faithful readers.

** I did eventually find a paperback copy, but now the spine is all busted up, and there was never enough room in the margins anyway.


*** I did find an 1854 copy of Tallus in hardcover for just a few buck on Amazon. It's 6" x 4" and about 1/4" thick. Unfortunately, it's also in Latin. Someday I'll be able to read it.

**** Except for that permanent hand cramp from writing them all out longhand. I thank God every night that a) those men existed and b) I was not one of them.


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Buh-Bye

Senator Switchback bows to reality:
WASHINGTON - Republican Sen. Sam Brownback, the Kansas conservative who struggled to raise money and gain recognition in the 2008 presidential campaign, will drop out on Friday, people close to him said Thursday.
While it is alleged that a lack of money is the reason this exercise in futility is winding to a close, I think a lack of voters has to be a close second. Even if he had raised money on the level of Ron Paul (about 5x his quarterly total), his poll numbers were still down in the 1% area. Since they had not moved in the year since he began his campaign, the likelihood that anything would have moved them was slim.

Switchback has already said he wants to spend more time in Kansas*, so I suspect in 2 years he'll trade jobs with the current Governess of Kansas, who is ineligible for a third term. That will make for an interesting election cycle, to be sure.

* Which could be considered evidence of possible mental illness in some contexts. Except that he'll be moving from Washington, DC, so it's a definite step in the right direction.

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Racist Catch 22

Nate writes KFC with a request:
I am offended by your recent commercial which shows an african american family sitting down to a nice meal consisting of your chicken. The probmem with this commerical is that it is depicted as a single parent family, as there are children and a mother, and no father.

I think that this commercial is very stereotypical, and because of that fact it offends me. I your commercials in the past, the white families have had fathers. I plan not to return to your company because of this fact.

Please stop being racist.
You can see the whole commercial over at Snoop's Place (hat tip) but hey, it's a commercial. You've probably already seen it 100 times.

But the funny thing is the beautiful Catch 22 the Racism Police have set up. Here we have a black woman with her kids. No dad. Obviously the racist stereotype is intentional. I mean, she probably bought the fried chicken with a welfare check, too. Aw, lawdy, pass the watermelon, Aunt Jemima... "Racist KFC, I'm never eating there again!"

So what happens if they add dad? Well, since 2/3 of black kids are raised without dad around, obviously then the commercial would be considered critical of black culture by the Racism Police (the same accusation was leveled at the Cosby Show). Black culture must not have been "good enough" for KFC. They're not keeping it real. "Why must you force white norms on black families? Racist KFC, I'm never eating there again!"

So what happens if they decide to avoid the trouble (and the Catch 22) by just not using black actors at all? Then they are accused of ignoring or marginalizing blacks. "Why won't you put black people in your commercials, Mr. Ad Exec? Racist KFC, I'm never eating there again!"

No matter what someone does, there is always some angle that can be used to prove that they are offending the person looking to be offended. And no matter what defense is put up, it can be twisted into proving its opposite. Catch 22.

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Can you get Jihaded for this?



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I hate when they say stuff like "Woe Betide"

The British press delivers a bit O bad news:
Japan and China led a record withdrawl of foreign funds from the United States in August, heightening fears of a fresh slide in the dollar and a spike in US bond yields.

Data from the US Treasury showed outflows of $163bn (£80bn) from all forms of US investments. "These numbers are absolutely stunning," said Marc Ostwald, an economist at Insinger de Beaufort... "Woe betide US Treasuries if inflation does not remain benign," he said...

Ian Stannard, a Paribas currency analyst, said the data was "extremely negative" for the dollar. "It exceeds the worst fears. It is not just foreigners who are selling US assets. Americans are turning their back as well," he said.
With both the IMF and the World Bank talking about dollar devaluation, the trade balance still at a record deficit, housing collapsing, gold heading for a record high, oil closing in on $90, the dollar chart now below 80 for 3 weeks, the Loonie above parity, the Euro at a record high, 2 bucks for a British pound, a demographic avalanche, a spendthrift government, a Treasury Secretary who is trying to figure out a way to keep all this subprime debt off of bank balance sheets, and a Fed Chairman who panics like PFC Hudson in Aliens*, the fact that the dollar will fall quickly and very far from here is obvious.

Too obvious.

All those things are true, of course, but they are all known. The contrarian in me says that it might just be time for an unexpected monster dollar rally. After all, there is no more profitable time to buy than when everyone else is panic selling.

Then again, contrarians are often too clever by half**.

* "That's it man, game over man, game over! What the %$#^ are we gonna do now? What are we gonna do? I know, let's cut rates."

** The half of their money they don't have any more.

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So I was trying to recover that old header art...



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Hey, Rocky

Watch me pull a .22 out of my hat...
A top restaurant is serving up free grey squirrel pancakes to hungry diners. Peking duck-style squirrel wraps are being offered to diners at The Famous Wild Boar Hotel...

The grey squirrels were caught in the hotel's 72-acre woodland grounds and have been prepared by head chef Marc Sanders.
I've never had grey squirrel due to the fact that they are rather rare in northern Minnesota, where I used to do my hunting. Sure, there were greys in the city*, but in the swamps where we hunted there were only red squirrels, lots and lots of red squirrels.

But there's a problem with eating something that has lived its entire life in a cedar swamp, and that is that (at least in the case of squirrels) it has spent its entire life eating parts of cedar trees. And that means that no matter how you cook it, whether you broil it or bake it in a pie or sautee it or dump it in a stew with plenty of Copenhagen snuff for flavoring, it still tastes almost but not exactly like a Christmas wreath.

* at least in the rich part with the big trees where my grandma lived. We didn't have any near my house, but we did used to snare rabbits with picture wire in the back yard and in the hills nearby. My brother Marty, he of the kill-the-baby-flying-squirrels-with-a-buck-knife fame, actually shot one in the back yard with his homemade bow. Poor little thing couldn't have been more than 8" long, and I still remember the smile on my brother's face as he proudly held the little bugger up, impaled on a homemade arrow and running for all he was worth. He tasted significantly better than chicken.

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Here you go, JN

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What's that rumbling?

Fox News points out a whole lot of pretty heading our way:
WASHINGTON — Kathleen Casey-Kirschling filed for early retirement Monday, becoming the first baby boomer to start collecting Social Security.

Born one second after midnight in January 1946, the retired teacher leads the way for as many as 80 million individuals who will qualify for the retirement payout.
There are approximately 150 million workers in the US. There will soon be approximately 80 million people trying to draw Social Security from their payroll taxes. The Boomer generation is very bad news, not because it's big but because there are comparatively few people directly behind it. While one retiree was supported by some 30 workers when SocSec was established, that number is now significantly smaller, approaching one retiree per two workers.

Just for the system to stay even, every one of the 80 million people drawing $1000 a month* will cost 2 people each $6000 a year in taxes. That's just SocSec taxes, not income taxes or gas taxes or property taxes. It might be cheaper and easier to just assign an old person directly to each working couple to take care of.

The Boomers are why SocSec is toast: there simply aren't enough people following behind them to financially support them in the way they expect. Every dollar that El Presidente and his GOP Prize Patrol, mostly boomers themselves, wasted over the past decade just meant that the eventual financial avalanche would reach us that much quicker.

* I know it's more, but I like round numbers.

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Liberalism and decline

Debunking Christianity ponders a trend that I noted a long time ago:
There is an undeniable leftward trend to biblical or Christian scholarship. All one has to do is to observe the liberalizing and leftward trend of Biblical scholars and seminaries... Seminaries which defend inerrancy are relatively young and reactionary schools against the liberalizing schools they once supported. Yale, Princeton, and Harvard, for instance, were all started to train preachers.
Unfortunately, they draw precisely the wrong conclusion:
Could it be that a deeper level of Biblical understanding will lead progressively to greater disbelief in the Bible as God’s word? I think so.
As the main part of my answer, I'm going to posit two questions, the answers to which I think will serve to undercut the main assumption hidden in the above and lead to what I concluded a long time ago:

1) Does the combined faculty of Yale* have a "deeper level of biblical understanding" than, say, the faculty of Dallas Theological Seminary?

Not remotely. In fact, I would venture that the average faculty member at Yale has a far shallower biblical understanding than does a second-year student at Ozark Bible College, to pick a local example. There are any number of reasons why (e.g. change in mission, addition of other studies, others that I'll mention below). Yale may have any number of distinguished faculty who individually know a lot**, but as an organization it knows very little. Therefore I think that the assumption that it is a greater level of understanding that led to the liberalism is faulty.

The second question is going to sound a bit cruel, but I think it must be asked. Since DC notes that, "Seminaries which defend inerrancy are relatively young and reactionary schools against the liberalizing schools they once supported," I ask this:

2) Where are the young seminaries that have been established by religious liberals?

There are none, or if there are, I'll take the fact that I can't name one as proof that they are irrelevant to the debate***. All liberal seminaries became liberal a generation or two after their founding by those we would consider conservatives.

From that we can draw two tenative conclusions: these organizations are established only by conservatives, and they are eventually (by which I mean a generation or more later) invaded by liberals who knock them from their original purpose. The arrival of liberals is therefore a sign that an organization is in decline and is well on its way to irrelevance in its original field. One need not listen very long to hear a radio Bible preacher who graduated from Dallas, but one would grow old indeed waiting to hear one from Yale. Yale, which graduated George W. Bush, John Kerry, and Bill and Hillary Clinton, is obviously important to America, but it is irrelevant to its original goal (Puritan religious orthodoxy) and perhaps even to modern American Christianity once that is separated from politics.

But this trend is not limited to seminaries by any means. It is also very well attested to in mainline Protestant**** denominations, which are now splitting over such trivialities as whether to appoint gay ministers, or to re-write long-sung hymns to get rid of such offensive words as 'soldiers' and scriptures to rid themselves of such oppressive terms as 'father.' They are also in decline in membership, in money, and in community impact. By the time the PCUSA finally sends down its newest stone tablets, 1/3 of the church will have died off, 1/3 will be Southern Baptists, and the rest will remain only to struggle next over whether they should sacrifice red rams or white to the Moon goddess.

It is also attested to in the political arena, where one could illustrate any number of organizations, from labor unions to "rights" organizations to political parties and their internal factions, which were established for an express purpose and today find their ranks filled by placeholders, charlatans, and crooks. If the original purpose of the organization is fulfilled (e.g. the right to vote or the 40-hour week), the decay of the organization is almost guaranteed to occur within a single generation.

In fact, it seems that all organizations have something of a life cycle: they are founded with a purpose and great energy; once they are established (i.e. gain some measure of power, influence, or money) they fill up with people who do not share the original goal (but would like to share in that power, influence, or money); they go into decline and eventually become corrupt, stale, and irrelevant. In short, they are born, they grow, they stagnate, and they die, just like us.

The fact that religious institutions follow the same life cycle as secular ones leads inescapably to the conclusion that what changes occur are part of the nature of human organizations themselves. If those changes exhibit themselves as religious liberalism in certain institutions that is only due to the fact that the original goal was religious conservatism*****.

Those two conclusions also lead us to a question, and it's one that the original American colonists struggled with then just as their descendants in the denominations they established struggle with today: since organizations die, is it better to attempt to reform them (Puritans) or to leave them (Pilgrims) altogether******? That most new seminaries are conservative and that most growing denominations are conservative is simply not a coincidence; it is a continued pursuit of the original goal based on the separatist Pilgrim model.

Mankind is cursed in that everything we build up will eventually fall down, and so for the mission to go on it must occasionally be rebuilt from the ground up. Therefore the presence of a critical mass of liberals, by which I mean enough people who do not believe in the original message to cause the organization as a whole to lose the original message, is not indicative of a "deeper understanding" of that message; it is indicative of the fact that the organization has no longer any understanding of (or use for) that message at all. If that understanding is to be regained, we must start again from scratch.

* The reason I picked Yale is because their logo (pictured) clearly betrays their roots. And it was established in exactly the manner DC asserts of modern conservative seminaries: as a reaction to the rising liberalism of another faculty, in this case, Harvard.

** Or at least publish a lot. Academics too often think that is the same thing, but it's not. In fact, let's assume for a moment that the Documentary Hypothesis is false (as I believe it to be). That means that the thousands of dissertations, books, articles, and speeches, and the millions of hours spent studying and arguing over its minutia, represent exactly no "biblical knowledge" at all. It only represents intricate and hard-earned knowledge about a false theory, which is about as valuable to real biblical studies as proposing and arguing over what kind of cheese the moon is composed of is valuable to geology.

*** Or it could be proof of my own ignorance. There may be a few. But since DC doesn't mention any either I think I'm on solid ground in assuming they are rare beasts.

**** The Catholics have proven somewhat exempt in the past century due to their reliance on tradition, but not wholly throughout the course of their history.

***** "Orthodoxy" might be a better term, but even it merely substitutes theological baggage for political. This whole essay is beset by every problem that arises when one tries to once-for-all name something that changes over the centuries.

****** This explains, in some small part, why I am no longer a Republican.

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As Sarah obeyed Abraham

Debunking Christianity (a blog run by ex-Christians who complain that Christians refuse to link to it) levels an interesting charge, considering that its target is not a Christian:
Furthermore, if Christians really believed the Bible ... the man would be the domineering patriarchal head of the house in which a wife is to “obey” her husband just like Sarah obeyed Abraham (I Peter 3: 6), even to the point of lying to save his life by having sex with another man (Genesis 12: 10-16) and by letting him sleep with another woman so he could have a child (Genesis 16).
Abram actually lied twice in the manner of Gen 12 (pretending Sarah was his sister rather than his wife), but as to whether Sarah actually had sex with Pharoah, I doubt it very much for a couple of reasons. The major one is that I don't think such a conclusion is supported by the text. Pharoah does say of Sarah, "I have taken her to wife," but in the context of royalty and of Genesis "taken" can just as easily mean that she was added into Pharoah's harem*. In fact, it is the Egyptian nobles who "commend" her to Pharoah, resulting in her being taken, but there is no indication that he personally even saw her.

So how do we choose which of the two mutually-exclusive posibilities is the more likely interpretation? By looking at the other example, in Gen 20:2-6. Same story, different king:
[Then] Abraham said of Sarah his wife, "She is my sister." So Abimelech king of Gerar sent for and took Sarah. But God came to Abimelech in a dream by night, and said to him, "You are a dead man: the woman you have taken (there's that word again - El B) is another man's wife."

But Abimelech had not come near her, and he said, "Lord, will you also slay a righteous nation? Did he not tell me, 'This woman is my sister'?" And did she not herself say, 'He is my brother'? I did this with an honest heart and innocent hands."

And God said unto him in the dream, "Yes, I know you did this with an honest heart. That is why I kept you from sinning against me by not allowing you to touch her."
I suspect that Pharoah got a similar wake-up call and that he touched her no more than did the king of Gerar. But that one, lacking any more specificity, may remain a matter of conjecture. The next one, that Sarah obeyed Abraham by "letting him sleep with another woman so he could have a child," is not.

Gen 16:1-3 reads this way:
Sarai, Abram’s wife, had borne him no children. Now she had a household slave, an Egyptian, named Hagar**. And Sarai said to Abram, "The LORD has kept me from bearing children, therefore I ask you to go in to my maid; perhaps I may have children by her. And Abram listened to the voice of Sarai."
Now a lot of people today would think it a crazy idea that a woman would wish to share her husband while the rest probably think that because it was (likely) a man who is telling this story he suppressed Abram's libido-driven manipulation of his wife into such a position. After all, no woman would do this on her own.

Well, no modern woman anyway. But several of the aforementioned Nuzi tablets deal with the issue of spousal obligations in the 2nd millennium bc Middle East, and one in particular sheds some light on Sarah's actions:
"...Kelim-ninu has been given in marriage to Shennima. If Kelim-ninu bears children, Shennima shall not take another wife; but if Kelim-ninu does not bear, Kelim-ninu shall aquire a woman of the land of Lullu as wife for Shennima, and Kelim-ninu may not send the offspring away. Any son that may be born to Shennima from the womb of Kelim-ninu, to these shall be given the lands and buildings of every sort..."
-- ANET p. 220, Published by E. Chiera, HSS, v(1929), No. 67, Translated by E.A. Speiser, AASOR, x(1930), 31 ff
As in the case of Jacob and Laban, there are a number of interesting parallels***, but the main one here is obviously that of a barren woman providing her husband a surrogate spouse for the purpose of having children. And they were not just the husband's children, but the (original) wife's as well. Sarah expressed it this way, "that I may obtain children by her." The children of a slave were the children of a slaveowner. Sarah's slave, Sarah's children.

But why would she do such a thing? I don't join those, like Ray C. Stedman, a man whom I admire no little bit, who think that "to give him the son of his heart's desire, Sarai was willing to sacrifice that [monogamous] relationship. It was not only an act of real sacrifice, but also one of deep sincerity." I don't think that at all. I think that Sarah felt keenly the pain of her barrenness, felt that she was a failure**** as a wife and a woman for not accomplishing a major expectation of her culture. In other words, it was her desire for a child of her own, not a sincere concern for her husband's progeny, that causes her to propose this. It was not a selfless act, but a selfish one, and there is nothing in her words here or actions later that leads us to believe that she did it for any person other than herself.

Now, all manner of bad things came of the whole situation: family strife, hatred, violence, and eventual banishment of Hagar and her son. Perhaps, if Ishmael is indeed the father of today's Arabs, that strife carries into our own times. Therefore the supreme irony of the situation, getting back to the original criticism of Abram's "domineering" patriarchalism, is not that Sarah obeyed Abram, but that he obeyed her. Had Abram the stones to say no to his wife as he should have, a multitude of later problems never would have occurred.

* It's important to remember that the taking of "extra" wives by ancient royalty was mainly a matter of cementing alliances between friendly powers. Abram is noted elsewhere as being "very rich" and will later field a private army, so it is very probably the case that Pharoah's nobles thought they were setting up this manner of alliance and that Abram merely played along. He is, as we will see, not often in the habit of saying no.

** The text doesn't say this, but I think it probable that she was brought back when Abram was bum rushed out of Egypt. The name Hagar, according to Strong's, is of "uncertain (perhaps foreign) derivation."

*** and two of them, the practice of the original wife formally "sending away" such offspring and the legally-defined position of a natural son over a son born of such an arrangement, do not exist in later Hebrew culture and are obviously too detailed and too parallel with the findings of Archaeology for Genesis here to be anything other than a contemporary account.

**** And we will soon see how personally she takes slights related to that. As soon as Hagar becomes pregnant, she apparently lords the fact over Sarah. Sarah immediately begins to mistreat Hagar and eventually drives her out of the family.

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Oops

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Confounding the Confused

The wife of future First Lady Bill Clinton tries it again:
WASHINGTON - Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who last month suggested giving $5,000 "baby bonds" to every child born in America but later backed away, called yesterday for a new retirement plan that would boost individual savings with federal tax credits.

Clinton's plan would match the first $1,000 of retirement savings for families making up to $60,000 per year. The proposal would provide a 50 percent match for families making between $60,000 and $100,000.

"I believe that if you work hard and contribute to our country, you should have the opportunity to save and invest," Clinton said during the last of a four-day campaign swing through Iowa.
It's a strange mindset that presumes that it takes a government program to give people "the opportunity to save and invest." Hell, I thought we had banks in this country. But what I really like about her plan* is the outrage toward it at the Democratic Underground, many of whose denizens think that it's a) simply a ploy to boost the stock market or b) that it sounds like a Republican plan.

And while they may or not be correct that it is a "ploy," it certainly would boost the stock market. Any time you encourage more people to invest in stocks that is bound to happen. And it *does* sound like a Republican plan. It is, in fact, the partial privatization of Social Security. It's just done too stealthily for most to see it.

Work with me here a second:

The "real" inflation rate is at least three times the government's reported numbers. They exclude food and energy (food prices are increasing at a tremendous rate, oil prices are at an all-time high) and for the most part housing. For what is left government statisticians apply hedonic** price adjustments to trim the increase.

But SocSec increases (including distributions, which are gauged proportionally to how much one contributed but unadjusted for inflation) are based on the phony-baloney number, which means that as the years pass, Soc-Sec gets smaller and smaller relative to the actual money it costs to eat. It is also actuarially unsound, demanding that if current promises are to be kept the government must eventually break either the promises through means-testing, the economy through taxation, or the dollar through inflation.

So to avoid that triple-cross, Hillary would create a mobile 401(k) that would provide everyone with similar retirement income that would probably grow faster than SocSec monies. But it could still be counted a government benefit. It is functionally the same as GWB's SocSec plan, except that he made the mistake of calling it part of SocSec. Hillary's plan simply replaces SocSec while pretending it's still whole.

So as the years pass, SocSec begins to fade out, replaced by an individually-directed***, non-benefit-defined accounts. No wonder those at the Democratic Underground hate it, even if they don't understand it.

* Not that I particularly like the plan itself. It would be far easier and safer to simply eliminate taxation of interest and then stop driving interest rates to sub-market levels.

** Their word, not to be confused (too much) with hedonistic.

*** within government-approved bounds, i.e. the stock and bond markets, but one can still get around that by purchasing ETFs or royalty trusts as I do in mine.

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For Snoop



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But does it leak blue water if you tip it over?

Maybe he's afraid Olympics-seeking Johnson Countians will mistake his car for a Zhang-on-the-spot:
BEIJING (Reuters) - Some Beijing motorists are flushed with anger over new license plate numbers that contain the letter combination "WC," saying it gives them "unpleasant images."

Along with "OK," "hello" and "bye-bye," the abbreviation for the Victorian "Water Closet," or toilet, has became one of the most well-known English expressions in China...

"I will not make myself a laughing stock among my friends by adding such a weird abbreviation to my new car," Xinhua quoted car owner Zhang as saying.

Authorities, however, were not sympathetic.

"We will not change our policy," a policeman in charge of issuing license plates said.
A few years ago here in Kansas, a number of dazzling urbanites* were also offended by a controversial homophone that they did not wish displayed on their cars. Standard-issue Kansas plates come with three letters followed by three numbers, and it was the three letters that were causing the folks at the DMV to say, "No ma'am, that's not what that means." In fact, its homophonic equivalent is not even a real word, or if it is, it's not spelled with three letters.

But rather than put up with all their tales of woe and suffering**, the Kansas DMV simply reorganized their distribution system, sending all the license plates with the offending letters to the western part of the state. Those people may not be as educated, rich, or good-looking as the people of Johnson County, but at least they know what a HOE is.

* Not in the "Blazing Saddles" sense, but in the "I live in Johnson County so I'm sophisticated, unlike other Kansans" sense.

** Another true story of suffering: when I was living in Johnson County in the mid 90s, we had a snowstorm one October. We got more than 6 inches of the stuff over the course of about 4 hours, and since the leaves were still on the trees, every branch more than 3 feet long was ripped to the ground, the power line was completely torn out of my house (my meter, which had been attached to the house, was some feet away, hanging on the dead line), and electricity was out in some areas for more than a week. The Johnson County Sun had a story a few days after the storm, which featured an interview with one lady in Prairie Village, and they had a picture of her, sitting on a rocking chair in her gorgeous house, with a shawl over her lap. A brand-new SUV peeked over her shoulder from her driveway. And in it she wished dearly for the power to come back on because she was, and I quote, "tired of living like Daniel Boone."


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Maybe my Care-O-Meter is busted

A left-coast dentist has a common problem of his own now:
WOODLAND, Calif. - A dentist accused of fondling the breasts of 27 female patients is trying to keep his dental license by arguing that chest massages are an appropriate procedure in certain cases. Mark Anderson's lawyer says dental journals discuss the need to massage the pectoral muscles to treat a common jaw problem.
But that's not the funny part. I'm going to skip his obligatory denunciation*, and just get to it:
Deputy Attorney General Jeffrey Phillips gave [the judge] three new complaints, including one from a 31-year-old woman who said Anderson fondled her at least six times over two years.

She took to wearing tight shirts with high necklines, "and Anderson would still get in under her shirt and bra," according to a police report.
Why on earth, with no less than forty dentists in that town, would any woman continue to visit this one three times a year? Sometimes it's hard to be sympathetic...

* Just consider him properly denounced. Since no one would disagree with such a denunciation, it has devolved into a ritual anyway.


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How to not hire Americans



This is about 5 minutes long, but worth the time.

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And since she's from New York

She'll sell you a bridge, too:
Senator Hillary Clinton said yesterday that if she is elected president, she intends to roll back President Bush's expansion of executive authority, including his use of presidential signing statements to put his own interpretation on bills passed by Congress or to claim authority to disobey them entirely.

"I think you have to restore the checks and balances and the separation of powers, which means reining in the presidency," Clinton told the Boston Globe's editorial board.
Presidents do not voluntarily reign in the Presidency*. It's not only a fact of history but a simple matter of common sense. Presidents propose an agenda, they are elected to implement that agenda, and they use all means at their disposal to do so. This is especially the case with progressive politicians, like GWB and Hillary, who believe that it is the government's responsibility to solve societal ills. There is never a dearth of problems to be solved, nor a lack of hypothetical programs with which to solve them**. And since it is expected of the executive that she will "do something" about every one of them, the idea that Hillary is going to voluntarily decrease her power in the face of them is laughable.

Unfortunately then, it is up to the other branches of government to rein in executive power, and most notably that branch in which currently sits more than half a dozen of the dwarves currently seeking the Presidency***. Yet aside from all their noise about doing so, they consistently vote to empower the executive, whether they believe in a "Unitary" presidency or not.

The Unitary theory is hated by the left (they being out of executive power for a few more months), but its essence is clear in the Constitution. The first sentence of Article II reads, in full: The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. Period. The President IS the executive branch, and Congress has no authority over it. It is almost the height of irony for Congress to claim they are going to restore the separation of powers by telling the President how to run his part of the government.

But in actuality the Congress has almost complete power in the government because a) they control the power of the purse, and b) they write the laws the executive is supposed to enforce****. Their mistake has been in creating, via legislation, departments and branches by which they have ceded that power to the President. Why, for example, if the 16th Amendment gives the Congress power to levy taxes on incomes, is the IRS a part of the executive branch? Because Congress set it up that way. Why, if the Constitution gives Congress the power to borrow money, is the Treasury Department part of the executive branch and the Fed answerable to no one? Because Congress set them up that way. In short, the President has the power he has because Congress has given it to him. They wrote the laws that put all this power in the President's hands and now they have the audacity to complain that he's too powerful? All they have to do to get rid of a department is to de-fund it. Yet they don't.

So long as the Congress continues to push its regulatory powers off to agencies located in the executive branch, the separation of powers is a moot point. But I don't hear any Congressmen talking about that, especially ones who don't like what Bush is doing with all the money they give him.

* though they can be ineffective, which amounts to very much the same thing in the short term.

** The only true limitation is money, which Hillary recognized when she said, "I have a million ideas. The country can't afford them all." But I'm sure Helicopter Ben might have a few ideas to solve that one.

*** Relying on a court that declares the growing of plants for personal use subject to the Interstate Commerce Clause while admitting such is neither inter-state nor commerce is an exercise in futility.

**** Or worse, write broad outlines and then delegate to the executive agencies power to fill in the blanks.

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Meet the new boss

same as the old boss:
WASHINGTON, Oct. 8 — Two months after vowing to roll back broad new wiretapping powers won by the Bush administration, Congressional Democrats appear ready to make concessions that could extend some of the key powers granted to the National Security Agency.

Bush administration officials say they are confident they will win approval of the broadened wiretapping authority that they secured temporarily in August as Congress rushed toward recess, and some Democratic officials admit that they may not come up with the votes to rein in the administration...
Of course they won't rein it in; if they can extend domestic spying powers for 18 more months, they will in all likelihood inherit that power. What's not to like about that?

One of the more interesting things about my American Revolution class is looking at British politics of the 18th Century. Sure, the issues were different and the speeches far better, but one important parallel is not the issues so much as the fact that they were interchangeable among parties. The issues were, in fact, a means to an end, summed up by my (fantastic) professor as "place and pension." The important issue, the one that all politicians in 18th Century Britain could agree on, was that it was imperative that they rule. The specific rules they implemented were secondary.

The parallel to today is obvious, and as I once noted in regards to the filibuster after the GOP and Dems switched positions and took on precisely the same arguments their opponents had used when the other party was appointing judges, these are arguments of convenience rather than conviction. The Democrats will go along with domestic spying not because they lack votes (they run both houses of Congress for crying out loud, what part of 'majority' do they not understand?) but because it increases government power, power that they hope to (and in all probability will) soon wield.

The wonderful thing about history is not that it repeats itself (the fact that most ignore it makes any societal benefit that might bring moot), but that for the person who pays attention to it, it makes mankind so darned predictable.

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Still less than Al Gore



CATEGORY ACRES
FOOD 6.2
MOBILITY 4.2
SHELTER 4
GOODS/SERVICES 7.4
TOTAL FOOTPRINT 22


IN COMPARISON, THE AVERAGE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT IN YOUR COUNTRY IS 24 ACRES PER PERSON.

WORLDWIDE, THERE EXIST 4.5 BIOLOGICALLY PRODUCTIVE ACRES PER PERSON.


IF EVERYONE LIVED LIKE YOU, WE WOULD NEED 4.9 PLANETS.


Take the quiz

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In search of ancient quotations

Two creationalist works share a similar theme. Can you find it?
Thanks to modern archaeology, these Biblical Hittites were confirmed to be non-mythological, and were discovered to have also had a legend about the global Flood, the same Deluge recounted in a legend from the Tamils of southern India which was survived by again eight people, Satyavrata (Noah), Sharma (Shem), Charma (Ham), Japati (Japheth), and their wives.
-- Northwest Creation Network, The Ancients Knew of the Global Flood

Aristophanes claims Japetos as the ancestor of the Greeks and in the "Institutes of Manu" dated about 1280 B.C., one of the ancient Aryan histories, it is said that a certain individual named Satyaurata had three sons, the eldest of whom was named Jyapeti. The others were named Sharma (Shem?) and C'harma (Ham?).
--Arthur Custance, Noah's Three Sons
You may be surprised to discover that the interesting similarity is not the claim that the ancient dot*-not-feather Indians knew about Ham, Shem, and Japheth, but rather, it is in the vague manner in which such relatively explosive information is delivered. Custance notes that such a story exists, and the NCN notes that the tale is "a legend from the Tamils." Neither of them provides a footnote, which one might expect unless such important information were common knowledge.

I can't speak for the NCN - for other than this piece I have never read any of their work and I only found it because I was checking up on Custance - but Doctor Custance, a PhD in Oriental Languages (University of Toronto**), is a man whom I have always found to be a very careful scholar.

So why the weasel-wording?

Since this might be rather important for those studying the post-Babel dispersion of peoples from the Middle East, I went looking for the original source. After all, it has to exist somewhere for all these*** people to quote it. So where is it?

Actually, the earliest source I could find was almost exactly 200 years old, in the works of philologist Sir William Jones, a Briton living in India at the turn of the 19th Century. Jones was neither fool nor naif; in fact it is because of his work that we speak today of the Indo-European language group, for he was the first to note that Sanskrit and European languages share many of the same roots and features.

From there I discovered another, Thomas Maurice's 1840 History of Hindoostan, which quotes Sir William and leans on his authority fairly heavily. Jones had an authority that could be leaned on, in fact, I discovered 8 or 10 different published papers coming from the period between these two works which quoted him more or less verbatim. Jones' authority in the field was unquestioned by his contemporaries.

But then it stopped. I mean dead. Other than a few stray pieces, almost no scholar after 1840 touches the quote, and rare is the one who does who provides a source.

Now Custance provides a source, the "Institutes of Manu," which he dates at 1280bc and others date earlier. Unfortunately, one can peruse them at the Indian Sourcebook in vain. They do not contain the quote or anything like it. Another work, the Critical Review (1802), claimed it to be from a literal translation of the Padma-Puran. Though I cannot locate the whole thing online (at least not in English), I did locate a summary, which assuredly talks about creation but lacks this particular flood narrative.

However, I did discover that Custance's Satyavrata is also called "Manu"**** and is considered by the Hindus to be the progenitor of mankind and the man who survived the world-wide flood, so Custance's "Institutes of Manu" is not so far off as it seems - he may simply be talking about a collection rather than one specific work. Another ancient Hindu document, the Matsya Purana, tells the story of how Manu spared a little fish, who told him about the flood and then guided his ark to safety while the rest of the world perished. So we do have a flood and an Indian Noah, but we are still sans his three sons.

So I'm sorry to let you down right here, but I do not have a conclusion. I really don't even have a theory other than that Sir William was mistaken and everyone figured it out but neglected to say so. I simply note that this single piece of evidence, still bandied about - mostly but not completely by creationalists - has simply disappeared from the earth, if in fact it ever even existed. Maybe it's time to stop mentioning it without providing a decent source, or at least a pretty significant caveat.

* no relation, I'm sure.

** Which I mention for two reasons. The first is to counter the accusation that creationalists do not get degrees from real universities and the second is because his doctoral thesis (which I have mentioned before) traced the linguistic descent of the people of Ashkenaz, the grandson of Japheth.

*** I realize that two is not "all these," but there are many more, from Madame Blavatsky's ridiculous "Isis Unveiled" to this book from the current decade which tries to demonstrate how the Jews stole everything from the Hindus.

**** Which apears to be a title rather than a personal name.

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Christians and hypocrisy

Progressive U asks* the big question:
Are we all a little bit hypocritical?

It depends on one's definition of hypocritical... According to the Collins English Gem Dictionary, hypocrisy is "assuming of false appearance of virtue; insincerity." If one chooses to follow the latter, then realilistically everyone is a bit hypocrytical.

I, however, don't define hypocrisy as insincerity. I think it's more along the lines of saying one thing yet doing the other... Contradicting your own beliefs or values.

But hypocracy, to me, isn't always easy to combat. For instance, and this is something I don't love about myself and something that not many people know, I'm a self-proclaimed agnostic but I'm the youth representitive on my Presbyterian church's session. I'm aware that this is possibly the epitome of hypocracy and I'm aware that it's kind of disgusting, but it's a difficult situation. I'm not going to go into all the details because that's not the point of this blog, but I enjoy the community. I don't belive in "God" but I find the community of my church comforting. I grew up there.

In the long run, is it considered hypocritical if you're aware of the hypocracy in the situation? I belive that it is, but it's difficult to deal with nonetheless.
Progressive U's dual definition takes two parts, but I must defend the one that he finds universal: saying one thing and doing another.

Imagine if you will, a wide receiver on a football team: it is his primary job to catch the ball**. Catching the ball is his "good" and there are no ifs, ands, or buts and no gray areas when it comes to his performance: he catches the ball or he does not. Either he lives up to the demands of his position or he does not.

On one play he is wide open and the ball is perfectly thrown to him, but he does what so many other receivers do: he runs before he has the ball. It bounces off his fingers and falls incomplete. He has no excuses, he simply failed to live up to his calling. Is he a hypocrite? We would all say he is not, even though he did not do what he was supposed to. He failed and it's his own fault, but he is not a hypocrite.

Now, let's take that from a game to real life. The same man has a religious belief that he ought not have sex with someone he's not married to, but he finds within himself a desire for whatever reason to do so. Or maybe it's to steal. Or to lie. Or whatever other sins he is wholly against. He does them anyway. He has said one thing and done another. Is he a hypocrite? Most of us would say that he is.

We excuse the receiver because he did not mean to drop the ball; he simply made a choice - to look downfield just for a second - that resulted in him not catching it, and we do not excuse him in the field of morality because we assume that he has more control of himself in that field than he had on the football field.

Because of that assumption we conclude that if he does X, then he must think X is alright for him. And if he's saying X is wrong for everyone else, he's a hypocrite. But what if he does not think X is alright for him? What if he knows it's wrong and does it anyway? Is he still a hypocrite?

Therein lies a significant problem for the Christian***. The underlying base assumption of Christianity (and to be honest, its main accusation against men), is that there exists an external code of morality and that none of us can live up to it. And we don't even have an excuse, because Paul states in 1Cor 10:13 that God, in every temptation, offers us a way out. If we believe that, then we have no excuse for sin: if we sin then we rejected God's way out. And yet as Paul, the author of 1Cor, wrote in Romans 7:15, "what I hate, that is what I do." The need for the sacrifice of Jesus Christ arises from the fact that all men sin, even when we have the power not to.

So is failure to live up to an external code that I know I cannot meet to be counted as hypocrisy? If it is, then as Progressive U notes we are all hypocrites****, but if we are all hypocrites then the word has lost its sting: you might as well accuse a man for sleeping. Therefore I think we have to set that aside, Progressive U's plea notwithstanding: the only way to avoid hypocrisy in that case is to jettison any morality I cannot live up to. Since it is not in my power as a Christian to jettison that, I must conclude that all, especially me, are simply sinners rather than hypocrites. We fail to live up to our morality like the receiver fails to catch the ball.

That drives us inexorably back to Progressive U's first definition, the one he rejected, as the real hypocrisy. If I pretend that I am not a sinner when I am, if I cultivate some moral reputation that does not belong to me or that I have not earned, then I am a hypocrite. It is not saying one thing and doing another that makes me a hypocrite, it is looking down my nose at a man who struggles with a temptation while ignoring my own moral failures that makes me such*****.

"Pride goes before destruction," Solomon said, "and a haughty spirit before a fall." If I am condemning sin, even though I'm a sinner, then I convict myself. Even so, I must condemn sin, for it is what it is. But if I am condemning the sinner while presuming that I, through my superior moral qualities, am exempt from such condemnation, then I am branded a hypocrite by my own words.

Hypocrisy is one of those accusations that is easy to level, because as soon as men set up an objective standard of behavior we will fail to live up to it. In that sense we are all hypocrites, it is simply part of the nature of what we are. But true hypocrisy arises when we convince ourselves that it is only others who fail, when we tell ourselves and then begin to believe that sin is something the other man has to deal with and that we are somehow exempt from the foibles common to man, then that our actions are uniquely pleasing to God, and finally that God ought to be proud to have chaps like us hanging around him.

Hypocrisy arises when we begin to believe that we are better than our fellow man - not that we have a superior moral code, but that we are morally superior. And we ought not be surprised at the fall that follows closely behind such pride.

* Spelling errors in original. I thought about correcting them but a whole bunch of "sic"s might come off as hypocritical, since I make such (and don't apologize for them) myself.

** Sure, he may block on occasion, but no one would define a wide receiver as a person who is on the field to block.

*** It is also a significant problem for the Jew, the Muslim, and anyone else who has a moral code that is defined by someone other than himself. I'm concentrating on Christians here because our religion tells us flat out that we don't live up to our own rules.

**** There is one specific exception even to this definition: people who define their morality as simply what they desire to do. One who has no external code of morality can be criticized for many things, but never for hypocrisy. Hypocrisy is unique to people who promote externally-defined ideals.

***** which is why the word Jesus uses to describe such is 'hupokrites,' "actors," or "stage players." A hypocrite is first and foremost not a failure, but a pretender.

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Remember, Dollar, thou art mortal

CFR has a firm grasp on the inevitable:
The Council on Foreign Relations also has supported regional and global currencies designed to replace nationally issued currencies.

In an article in the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs, entitled "The End of National Currency," CFR economist Benn Steil asserted the dollar is a temporary currency.

Steil concluded "countries should abandon monetary nationalism," moving to adopt regional currencies, on the road to a global "one world currency."
In this case, the CFR is absolutely correct: the dollar is a temporary currency. It might be better to say that it's a mortal one that has been dying since the introduction of a banking cartel known as the Federal Reserve. The dollar was shot by Wilson, stabbed in the back by FDR, curb-stomped by Nixon, and it looks like El Presidente Dobleve has issued it a coup de grâce*. All we are waiting for now is for it to stop twitching so we can tear out its fillings.

But even though CFR can see the death of the dollar coming, they display an endearing naivete in proposing that a regional currency or even a world currency would be any better or last any longer. If American clowns, Mexican clowns, and Canadian clowns** can't create a currency that holds value, what possible synergies could they together capture that would allow their failed scheme to work on a trans-national scale?

National and international fiat currencies suffer from one fatal shortcoming: they have no external control other than the will of politicians. Since it's easier to print money or issue credit than to tax, fiat currencies are inevitably inflated to death by politicians who get elected by promising something for nothing to the credulous masses. It will always be so***. Always.

Therefore the only world currency that could avoid that problem is one that politicians can't create from nothing: gold. But since the whole idea of a currency is to avoid using gold for money, we can resign ourselves to outliving our currencies. And therefore our bank accounts.

* Is it in poor taste to mix Spanish mockery and French metaphors?

** No small number of whom are members of the CFR.


*** Even the Fed, designed as it was to keep the issuance of money away from politicians by turning it over to a private banking cartel, suffers from this failure. In order to have legal control of the money, the Fed has to agree to create as much of it as Uncle Sam wants. And Uncle Sam's desires are infinite.

(hat tip: Huck)

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God in the luggage

BS4A is a confusticated if not bebothered by a petty theft in Gen 31:
I'm confused by verse #31. Jacob seems to be confessing to taking Laban's "gods" (idols). That's before he says the thief must die (not knowing that the culprit was Rachel).

Odd that the punishment for stealing graven images should be so severe...
The background is this: Jacob, after marrying two of Laban's daughters and working for him over the course of two decades, decides to head back to Canaan one dark night with all his stuff, wives included. Upon discovering that Jacob has scarpered, his twice-over father-in-law catches up to him and accuses him of pilfering the household idols.

Now I take Jacob's immediate answer, "Because I was afraid you might take your daughters by force," to be answering Laban's first question ("Why did you flee away secretly?") and his second to be dealing with the issue of the idols. But why would Laban care about a couple pieces of badly-carved stone that could probably be replaced for less than the animal on which he rode?

One document recovered in the archaeological dig at Nuzi (beneath the modern Iraqi city of Kirkuk) might explain both Laban's anxiety and Jacob's agreement that whoever took them should die*:
"The tablet of adoption belonging to Nashwi, the son of Ar-shenni: He adopted Wullu, the son of Puhi-shenni. As long as Nashwi is alive, Wullu shall provide food and clothing; when Nashwi dies, Wullu shall become the heir.

If Nashwi has a son of his own, he shall divide (the estate) equally with Wullu, but the son of Nashwi shall take the gods of Nashwi. However, if Nashwi does not have a son of his own, then Wullu shall take the gods of Nashwi.

Furthermore, he gave his daughter Nuhuya in marriage to Wullu, and if Wullu takes another wife he shall forfeit the lands and buildings of Nashwi.

Whoever defaults shall make compensation with one mina of silver and one mina of gold."

-- ANET pp. 219-220, Document published and translated by C.J. Gadd, RA, XXIII (1926),49-161, No. 51.
The Nuzi documents are generally 16th-14th Century BC and cast no little illumination on the times in which Jacob lived. For example, in this document a man named Nashwhi adopts one named Wullu to be his heir, and it's quite possible that Laban's exhortation to Jacob to "abide with me" (Gen 29:19) is the same sort of agreement.

Note the parallels:

Nashwi provides a wife for Wullu / Laban provides a wife for Jacob (29:19)

Wullu cannot take another wife / Laban charges Joseph to take no other wives than his daughters (31:50)

Wullu shall divide the estate with the natural sons only after the death of the Nashwi / Laban claims all that Jacob left with is still his (31:43)

But the most interesting one is this:

If Nashwi has a male heir, he inherits the 'gods' and Wullu cannot take them, but if he does not have an heir, then Wullu gets them. It seems the gods are not simply carved stone idols that could be replaced at the corner idol shop, but are tied up somehow in the familial rights of inheritance.

Before Jacob left, Laban's natural sons were concerned (31:1) that Jacob was horning in on their inheritance, but his daughters were afraid (31:14) that they were being cut out as well. So when they leave, Rachel steals the idols, by which she may have some legal claim over her father's property and Laban for obvious reasons freaks out. As inheritance rights were among the most important of all rights during the period**, it is unsurprising that Jacob defends his own honor by agreeing to support the ultimate penalty against the guilty.

The Israelite people would obviously have no knowledge of the legal significance of idols - items banned in their own culture*** - in pagan Mesopotamia 500 years before Genesis is alleged to have been written. And the fact that this strange episode is not explained is best explained by the idea that this portion of Genesis dates to a period in which the significance was widely understood, i.e. in Mesopotamia long before Moses. The discovery of the Nuzi tablets in 1925 is just one more stake in the heart of JEDP and the idea that Genesis was written hundreds of years after Moses.

* As Genesis notes, Jacob did not know his wife had stolen them, so this may just be a bit of bravado on Jacob's part as well.

** Unlike today of course, where inheritance never sets family members against one another. Except one guy with whom I worked back in the 80s. He had three jobs: cooking in the morning, cutting lawns all day, and passing the wee hours in a donut shop. I asked John one day why he worked so hard. His answer was that his brother had stolen all his money when their mother died, so he was saving up enough to retire. That way he would have time to hunt down his brother and kill him. I don't know if he ever did.

*** That doesn't mean that they didn't have them - they did, a fact that Moses indicts them for any number of times - but with inheritance rules set by law they did not serve the same purpose.

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Stolen from Huck



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Missing his own point

In a somewhat roundabout response to Ann and Vox, Pintopolis pipes up on Votes for Women:
The very notion that the women's vote is responsible for irresponsibility is crude at best, wildly absurd at worst. Consider that it's women who support abortion ... It's women who far more than men support an economic safety net...one of the most moral developments in the history of America.
Actually, in order to decide whether that particular notion is crude, absurd, or right on, all one has to decide is whether abortion and welfare (the morality of both aside) are more likely to cause responsible behavior or irresponsible. I think that one can make (and in the case of the former, I have made) a very good case that abortion and the safety net can be directly linked to increased personal irresponsibility. Pintopolis addresses neither, of course; he just declares that expecting such things to have real-life consequences that fall outside the desires of liberals to be "the stupidest thing possible."

But even in doing so, Pinto has inadvertently proves (or at least buttresses) one of Vox's more provocative arguments against women suffrage, because if women can always* be counted on to support government paternalism as Pintopolis here admits, then it follows that women suffrage is a useful tool for male politicians who want that increased government power for themselves. As Vox loves to point out, the very first plank of Mussolini's Fascist Manifesto is, "Universal suffrage polled on a regional basis, with proportional representation and voting and electoral office eligibility for women." And it was, in all probability, not because the Fascists felt limited franchise was so terribly unfair.

On the other hand, that the introduction of women suffrage was injurious to personal liberty** does not mean that its repeal would have the opposite effect. Smoking may cause lung cancer, but quitting once you have it will not cure it. One does not undo history, and there is little sense in trying.

The rise of the nanny state, rather than being mostly a result of the middle-class, unmarried*** female desire for security over freedom, is far more directly a result of two other trends anyway:
  • the rise of capitalistic production, from which there arose enough wealth that some could be redistributed
  • technology (science and engineering) as an ideology, the idea of the 'technocrat' who could run the government, the economy, and society like a machine - we still apply this foolish idea to the Fed, by far the most expensive and disastrous application of it.
Women have always desired security - that's not a bad thing, it's simply a natural result of their physical vulnerability. Men have always found it easier to plunder than to work. Increasing the franchise simply served as the easiest way for professional politicians to oversee and benefit from the process of institutionalizing both.

* By this I don't mean every woman will at any time, I mean that the majority of women will every time.

** The flipside of the uncontrolled growth of the nanny state.

*** it was not poor married women who were the activists; they were too busy. It is not coincidence that most feminists today are of the same demographic as then.

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Quoth the wife: not funny

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The herd is not always wrong

Bill Fleckenstein bemoans the loneliness of the long-distance contrarian:
Bottom line: For what's often thought of as a bear's [investment] conference, I did not detect much bearishness. Perhaps it's right not to be bearish. But it does strike me that perhaps to be quite bearish about the economy and the stock market might be one of the most contrary thoughts of all.
When it comes to investment, contrarianism can be loosely defined as "figuring out what the herd is doing and then doing precisely the opposite." And there are many times that the contrarian is correct: in fact, at the turns of great bull or bear markets he is the only one who's correct. He's the last seller when everyone has bought, and he buys the last cheap share of the last panic seller. He is, in fact, the only one who gains advantage when a trend has played out. Unfortunately for many contrarians it is easy to confuse "the herd is always wrong at the end of a trend" with "the herd is always wrong."

Contrariansism is considered the great virtue of the hard-money advocate and the economic permabear*. But in fact, it is the great temptation, the emotional and intellectual seduction that ensures that he will be wrong most of the time**, if only because, while universality of sentiment may exist at great market turns, it does not cause them. Sure, if through pure bullheadedness he holds on to his opinion through the whole trend, his sentiment will eventually be vindicated; at some point every market must turn. Whether he has any money left at that turn remains the open question.

It is no great feat (and therefore is no sure path to investment wealth) to simply decipher what the market is doing and to bet against it. In fact, that is a path to poverty, as markets move in one direction, with nearly everyone on board, for far longer than any rational person can expect. It is hard to kick against the pricks.

Rather, the great feat is to determine what the market must do and then to prepare oneself for the day it finally does that, to anticipate the inevitable and to allocate one's capital correctly when it arrives. Because in the long run, the market does not reward those who are contrary, but those who are correct.

UPDATE: The Dow*** hit a new high today, and as much as people in the hard-money camp believe that this is sufficient justification to renew their predictions of a crash, I would simply say that there are times when it's safest, if one is not willing to jump aboard a runaway train, to at least stay off the tracks****.

* at least in this generation of seemingly-perpetual financial bull markets.

** and, most likely, that he will spend that time protesting that he is correct about the market but that a shadowy cabal, hiding behind three letter acronyms (they might be the PPT - the Plunge Protection Team, they might be the PTB - the powers that be), is the real reason his market calls consistently fail. He may even be right about that. More likely, it is simply not the end of the trend.


*** As I have said until you are bored to tears (c'mon, admit it, I won't call you a wuss for crying in public) if you want to understand our future, the Dow is the wrong thing to be watching anyway. I may do another post on this someday, but the main reason is the phenomenal amount of money that enters it through retirement and mutual funds who, by law, must buy stocks with it. The more the boomers put in their 401(k)s, the more the market goes up, fundamentals be damned. It's simple supply and demand, and demand has been institutionalized. It may not fall until (but will certainly fall when) Boomers start to withdraw that same money in retirement.

**** There. I've just ensured the market will crash. I hope you're happy.

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Democracy in Action

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