Sunday, August 27, 2006

here comes the ice again

Here comes the ice again
MOSCOW, Aug. 25 (UPI) -- A Russian scientist predicts a period of global cooling in coming decades, followed by a warmer interval.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov expects a repeat of the period known as the Little Ice Age. During the 16th century, the Baltic Sea froze so hard that hotels were built on the ice for people crossing the sea in coaches.

The Little Ice Age is believed to have contributed to the end of the Norse colony in Greenland, which was founded during an interval of much warmer weather.

Abdusamatov and his colleagues at the Russian Academy of Sciences astronomical observatory said the prediction is based on measurement of solar emissions, Novosti reported. They expect the cooling to begin within a few years and to reach its peak between 2055 and 2060.
Obviously, those Russians are in the pocket of Big Oil. Or since we found out this week that Russia is now the world's biggest oil producer, maybe they are big oil.

Two things I do note in their favor, however:

a) They are absolutely correct about the Norse in Greenland, which colony was founded during the Medieval Warm Period and was subsequently choked out by a global cooling period known as the Little Ice Age.

b) Good science is seldom done by consensus. That means that any argument you hear that "virtually all scientists believe in this new thing" is as likely to be an argument against the new thing as for it. Science is not democratic and truth is not determined by counting noses.

The earth has warmed and it has cooled. Sometimes that's good (warming generally corresponds with periods of rising wealth) and sometimes it's bad (cooling generally corresponds with mass migrations and starvations). For whatever reason it occurs it will continue, no matter what the Al Gores of the world say ought to happen and (most importantly) no matter what they do. Mankind has not been given control of the thermostat.

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